The Rangers entered this series against the Yankees as winners of five of their last six games.

However, they faced rather mediocre competition, earning their victories against the Athletics and the White Sox, two clubs with a combined winning percentage of .329.

Texas will now move up a division and face a Yankees team that has the best record in the American League at 80-58 after winning the series opener 8-4 on Monday.

The Yankees still have a lot at stake at the end, while the Rangers simply finish the game.

In Tuesday’s matchup, which features two left-handers, New York is the team with the best prospects as a -130 away favorite on FanDuel.

Yankees Analysis

Carlos Rodón will start for the Yankees and is showing much more quality now that he is finally healthy.

Rodón made just 14 appearances in his first year in New York, posting a 3-8 record and a 6.85 ERA. This season, he improved to 14-9 and lowered his ERA to 4.31.

His numbers would be even better if he could keep the ball in the field better.

In 2024, Rodón will allow 1.54 home runs per nine innings, compared to 0.88 in 2021 and 0.61 in 2022, when he had his best seasons.

Interestingly, his velocity (95.5 mph on the fastball average) is higher than it has ever been during his major league career.

Although he was never one to throw a lot of ground balls, he posted better numbers in those seasons because the stadiums in his home stadiums were more pitcher-friendly.

Rodón is likely to fare much better against the Rangers, who have an ISO average of .140, the sixth-worst in the league.

Rangers Analysis

Texas will counter with Andrew Heaney, who has easily pitched better than his 4-13 record.

His FIP of 3.95 exactly matches his ERA of 3.94, meaning his advanced stats don’t indicate a significant decline.

However, Heaney had difficulties, especially in the games against New York.

According to Baseball Savant, this Yankees squad has a .289 xBA against him in 101 batting appearances, with a .394 xWOBA and a .585 xSLG.

Heaney’s pitching arsenal consists primarily of three pitches: a fastball (52.7%), a slider (27.8%) and a changeup (16.2%).

Occasionally he mixes in a curveball, which he throws about 3% of the time.

The problem is that New York ranks second and sixth in above-average runs against its two main pitches.

And if he tries to use his changeup more often, Yankees hitters will likely get faster because he’s lost a little distance in velocity between the offspeed pitch and his fastball.

Heaney has good control and frequently throws in and around the plate to get batters chasing.

But the Yankees are a very patient team with a league-best 10.5% walk rate. Heaney will get into the zone at some point and the Yankees will be ready to strike.

Yankees vs. Rangers Tip

This is one of those matchups where the other team seems to have the pitcher under control. According to Action Network, Heaney’s teams are 89-90 (49.7%) in the games he starts.

However, his teams have a losing streak of 0-6 against the Yankees, and in his entire career it was 1-6.

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In addition, Rangers won in Heaney’s last appearance and have only won two games in a row once in his appearances all season.

Look for the Yankees to overwhelm the Rangers. At -130 odds, we’re getting a good price on the visitors.

Tip: Yankees Moneyline (-130, FanDuel)