Boeing (NYSE: BA) Shareholders have had to endure one wave of bad news after another in recent years. At least one analyst does not expect a quick recovery.

Boeing shares were down 7 percent at 10:30 a.m. ET after the stock was downgraded and its price target was cut well below the current price.

No easy way forward

Boeing’s problems are well known. Two fatal crashes caused production of the company’s 737 MAX to be halted for 18 months. This led to a deep review of the company’s manufacturing practices, which also caused significant delays in other aircraft programs. The company has fallen behind its internal production targets, causing problems for customers and prompting airlines to look to other manufacturers.

Unfortunately, these problems occurred during a strong upswing in this notoriously cyclical industry. Boeing’s competitors generate significant profits and cash flows.

Wells Fargo Analyst Matthew Akers fears that missing out on this surge in demand will cost investors dearly in the long run. Akers downgraded Boeing from “Equal Weight” to “Underweight” and lowered his price target from $185 to $119.

Akers expects Boeing’s free cash flow to peak by 2027 as future aircraft development costs absorb production growth, and he thinks a capital raise is likely. Boeing’s debt has grown to $45 billion due to the crisis. Paying off that debt would use up all of the expected cash by 2030, according to Akers.

Is Boeing a buy?

Boeing shares have fallen more than 60% since the first MAX incident. It’s tempting to view the problems as temporary and conclude that the stock is a buy for long-term investors. Akers’ downgrade underscores the danger of that thinking.

Boeing is part of a powerful global duopoly and has ample opportunity to revive its sales and rebuild its business. But the company is burdened with billions in debt and demand for aircraft is not unlimited.

Given Boeing’s turbulent recent history, investors should stay away until the company proves it has solved its production problems. But even if that happens, know that Boeing has a long road to recovery from then on.

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Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Lou Whiteman does not own any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool does not own any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Boeing Stock Is Falling Today was originally published by The Motley Fool