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    • Who wins? What Polls Say in Pennsylvania, Swing States
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    Who wins? What Polls Say in Pennsylvania, Swing States

    Eira Gwyneth Posted on

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    The countdown to Election Day is just 18 days away and all eyes are on swing states like Pennsylvania

    While most states consistently vote red or blue, such as the 38 states that consistently voted for the same party between 2000 and 2016, some are on the ballot in every election. These are called swing states or battleground states.

    Both the Republican and Democratic parties are focusing a lot of time and resources on the states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin – where the race is so close that they can really go either way.

    Pennsylvania is considered crucial to winning the White House. Both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are hoping to win the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on election night.

    The political climate of the last few months has made history and headlines across the country and is likely to impact undecided voters or cause others to reconsider their vote:

    Here’s an update on each swing state’s polls and ratings compared to national polls and ratings – as we approach Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

    Who is ahead in the swing state polls and is favored by the odds?

    • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at +2.0%, Harris at 48.3% to Trump at 46.3%; Pennsylvania has Harris in the lead with +0.1%; Arizona has Trump in the lead with +2.0%; Georgia has Trump in the lead with +2.2%; Michigan has Harris in the lead with +0.4%; Nevada has Harris in the lead with +0.4%; North Carolina has Trump in the lead with +0.9%; And Wisconsin Trump has a +0.1 lead.
    • 270towin shows Harris leading Trump by 2.1% in the national polls Pennsylvania Poll: Harris ahead of Trump by just 0.3%; Arizona Trump has a 1.7% lead; Georgia Trump has a 1.8% lead; Michigan has them in a draw; Nevada has them in a draw; North Carolina Trump has a lead of 0.5% and Wisconsin Trump has a lead of 0.7%.
    • Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds are in favor of Harris by a margin of +1.6 against Trump Pennsylvania shows a probability of +0.5 in favor of Trump; Arizona shows odds of +1.4 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +1.1 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.9 in favor of Trump; Nevada shows +0.5 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +1.0 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.1 in favor of Trump.
    • Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, points out that in the nationwide race, the betting public has high odds of favoring Trump at 60.1% over Harris at 39.8%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 57% to Harris’ 43%. Arizona shows Trump preferred 70% to Harris’ 31%. Georgia shows that Trump was preferred by 65% ​​to Harris by 35%. Michigan shows Trump preferred 56% to Harris’ 45%. Nevada shows Trump preferred 51% to Harris’ 50%. North Carolina shows Trump preferred 65% to Harris’ 36%. Wisconsin shows Trump preferred 57% to Harris’ 44%.

    Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers refer to Friday, October 18, 2024, 2 p.m

    How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

    According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

    Survey track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often achieve higher error rates.

    According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    In these two general elections, many surveys underestimated the attractiveness of Republican Donald Trump.

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    Eira Gwyneth
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