It’s hard enough to win a professional tennis match, let alone a championship final. But when your opponent is playing in front of a home crowd, the level of difficulty multiplies.

However, in this year’s Cincinnati final, Aryna Sabalenka defeated American Jessica Pegula. At the following US Open, Sabalenka once again pushed past Emma Navarro and Pegula in the final two games to win her title in New York.

Wuhan: Points | Order of play | Pulls

And so Sabalenka will try to make it for the third time in a row in the final of the Dongfeng Voyah · Wuhan Open on Sunday when she meets China’s Zheng Qinwen, who beat Wang Xinyu 6-3, 6-4 on Saturday.

“Lately life has challenged me to compete against players from my home country,” Sabalenka said after returning to beat Coco Gauff in three sets in their semifinal on Saturday. “(I) am kind of ready for it. No expectations of crowd support. I have my team. I have my family. I have many people around the world who support me. I’m just going to focus on that.”

Sabalenka will also focus on her third straight title in Wuhan following her victories in 2018 and 2019. She also beat Zheng in all three games.

For Zheng, the Olympic gold medalist, it is an opportunity to feed China’s growing hunger for elite tennis.

Greg Garber and Jason Juzwiak discuss the merits of the two finalists:

The case for Sabalenka

Here’s what Sabalenka thought after Gauff won 10 of the first 13 games in Saturday’s semifinals:

“At first I couldn’t do anything. I didn’t feel any strokes. It felt like: Whatever. I kind of admit that I’ve already lost this match. I thought, ‘Okay, whatever.’ If she gives me chances, I’ll do my best. If not, whatever, I’ll fly back home, enjoy some rest and get ready for the (WTA finals in Riyadh).”

And then she came back and won 1:6, 6:4, 6:4.

“It’s a little frustrating because I wanted to win this game,” Gauff said afterwards. “But I know she can level up against them once your level goes down. That’s exactly what happened today.”

Jason, a lot has happened lately. Sabalenka has an impressive 16-0 record in Wuhan. Additionally, she has won 19 of her last 20 matches and a win here would give her two WTA 1000 titles in a single year for the first time in her career.

She and Zheng have a short history – and it was decidedly one-sided. They have met in three of the last five Grand Slams and Sabalenka has won all of their meetings in straight sets:

US Open 2023 quarterfinals – 6-1, 6-4. Australian Open 2024 final – 6-3, 6-2. US Open 2024 quarterfinals – 6-1, 6-2.

Zheng says she learned some lessons from that defeat in Melbourne earlier this year, but the US Open result suggests otherwise.

Sabalenka is playing with immense confidence these days and the fact that she never lost in Wuhan will make her even harder to beat. She’s poised to surpass world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the PIF race to the WTA Finals (by a significant margin), and there’s a good chance the overall No. 1 will come into play next month if she arrives in Riyadh.

For the first time in her career, she won five consecutive games against top 10 players. It says here, Jason, that Zheng will make it to 7th place for the sixth place in a row. –Greg Garber

The case for Zheng

Obviously, Greg, the numbers don’t lie. Sabalenka has never lost a game in Wuhan. She has never lost a set against Zheng. The top-ranked Chinese player must be considered a pretty overwhelming underdog on Sunday.

And yet…this time it might be a little different.

As a newly crowned Olympic champion, Zheng entered the back-to-back WTA 1000 events in her home country with greater control and focus. Not only did she not give in under this increased pressure, she also showed that pressure is a privilege, as Billie Jean King always says.

“Queenwen” reached her first WTA 1000 semi-final in Beijing last week and has now gone one step further in Wuhan. Her mentality has proven itself in these tense situations, and that attitude (along with the loud support of the excited crowd) could help her turn the match on its head.

“In the (Olympic) quarterfinals, semifinals, my hands were shaking during the game,” Zheng said after her semifinal in Wuhan. “After the Olympics, I never had those feelings again. At least my hand stopped shaking during the game.”

“It’s better under control,” Zheng concluded with a smile.

Furthermore, Zheng has become a master of the first strike, and I mean that as literally as possible: Zheng is the new leader on tour in 2024. She started Wuhan tied with Elena Rybakina at the top, with 336 players each in games on tour -level this year. After 32 aces this week, Zheng stands alone with a total of 368.

She also came up with them in big moments. When Zheng was in the match against Wang Just Like That, Zheng hit two aces in a row to set up match point.

Zheng has used that booming serve to lead the tour in first serve points won this year: she has won on 75.5% of those drops.

Of course, this is much easier said than done against the top seeds. But the more Zheng prevents Sabalenka from even getting to the point by circling the world No. 2 with big first serves, the greater the likelihood that the scenario will develop in the home team’s favor.

“Sabalenka, she’s a really aggressive player, but I’m aggressive too,” Zheng said. “We’ll see about that tomorrow.” — Jason Juzwiak