WASHINGTON – Allan LichtmanA professor at an American university who has correctly predicted the winner of nearly every US presidential election since 1984 is expected to announce “very soon” who he thinks will occupy the White House in November, he said in a post on X.

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Lichtman has relied on his “13 Keys to the White House” for decades to determine the winners of this election. He will release his final prediction within a week of Labor Day — “plus or minus a day or two” — Lichtman said in a video posted on his YouTube channel.

Then on Wednesday, he published a social media post with the comment: “My prediction will appear VERY soon in the New York Times and then on our YouTube channel.”

FOX 5 spoke to Lichtman several times throughout the turbulent election season.

After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, Lichtman found strong words for the Democrats amid the shakeup, calling on the party to “Get smart and unite.”

Since then, Lichtman said, that is exactly what has been done, effectively saving the “key to party competition.”

“The Democrats finally showed some backbone and got smart after publicly denigrating their incumbent president,” he told FOX 5. “They united behind Harris and thus avoided losing the decisive party battle.”

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In early August, Lichtman said a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose the White House.

Under his system, the Democratic Party would have to lose six key factors for him to predict their loss. At the time, he said they had lost three – party mandate, incumbency and incumbent charisma.

“Three more keys would have to fall to predict their defeat,” Lichtman said. “And only two keys look really shaky right now.”

These keys are foreign policy and social unrest.

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This happened before the Democratic Convention in Chicago, where Harris officially accepted the party’s nomination. It was a very energetic convention where Democrats showed their overwhelming support for the Vice President. This resulted in a slight lead for Harris in the national pollswhere she still has a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump.

While the event solidified Harris’ party support, Lichtman says foreign policy and social unrest could still play a big role given the twin wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Lichtman says he is taking that into account and will provide more details when he announces his final decision.

“Wars are always unpredictable,” Lichtman said. “There are some unpredictable factors out there, but I’ll explain to you exactly how I’ve prepared for the volatility of what’s happening overseas.”

As for Trump and the Republican Party, Lichtman has taken a swipe at statisticians Nate Silverwho recently stated that the probability of Trump winning the election is 52.4%.

“Just a few days ago, he said it was likely that Kamala Harris would win the election. Now, just a few days later, he’s changed his mind,” Lichtman said. “That’s not a real probability. That’s a made-up probability.”

Lichtman said he was taking into account Trump’s incident at Arlington Cemetery last week, which could also be a show of hands vote.

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The Trump campaign said the former president was invited to the cemetery to honor the lives of military personnel killed during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan three years ago.

Although Trump’s aides had been warned not to take photos or videos during the wreath-laying ceremony, they did so anyway and later posted the footage on social media, a “blatant violation” of the law, officials said.

“Another issue that concerns me is the incident at Arlington Cemetery,” Lichtman said. “Trump was warned that it was illegal to use the graves of our deceased heroes for political purposes. This is not only inappropriate, it is simply against federal law.”

Lichtman says military personnel and their families make up an important part of the Republican voting base and that incidents like this could therefore have a negative impact on Trump.