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    • What’s in the path of Hurricane Francine? Where is the storm expected to hit.
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    What’s in the path of Hurricane Francine? Where is the storm expected to hit.

    Eira Gwyneth Posted on

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    Editor’s note: Read Tuesday’s updates on Francine as the storm heads toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.

    Tropical Storm Francine, which formed on Monday, has taken a slow, meandering path across the Gulf. It is now picking up speed and is taking direct aim at the Louisiana Gulf Coast, where it is expected to make landfall sometime on Wednesday.

    “Francine is forecast to be just off the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by this afternoon, then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said in a forecast midday Tuesday. The cities closest to the expected landfall are Morgan City and Houma, Louisiana.

    New Orleans should brace itself for severe flooding, winds of up to 127 km/h, tornadoes and a storm surge of 1.0 to 1.5 meters, the local weather service said Tuesday. The city, which was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was just east of Francine’s worst impact, according to Tuesday’s forecast.

    After making landfall, the center of the storm is expected to move toward Mississippi “on Wednesday night into Thursday.”

    As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually moves inland over Louisiana, an increased risk of life-threatening storm surges, hurricane-force winds and significant flash flooding is expected, the hurricane center warned.

    As Francine approached, authorities ordered a mandatory evacuation of residents of three coastal communities, schools were closed and officials distributed sandbags.

    Tracker for Tropical Storm Francine

    What causes Francine to move north?

    Other weather systems are also pushing Francine upwards: An approaching low pressure system over Texas is likely to cause Francine to turn northeast at a higher speed over the next 24 to 36 hours. “And this movement is likely to bring the center to the coast of Louisiana sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening,” the hurricane center said.

    “After landfall, Francine is expected to drift further north between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States.”

    Storms are not uncommon in Louisiana

    The most recent hurricane to hit Louisiana was Ida in 2021, AccuWeather said. “Between 2019 and 2021, Louisiana experienced eight tropical storms or hurricane landfalls, including major hurricanes Laura and Ida,” noted AccuWeather meteorologist Alyssa Glenny in an online report.

    Heavy rain and risk of flooding inland

    In addition to the danger of strong winds and storm surges, there is also the risk of heavy rainfall:

    “Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of significant flash flooding and urban flooding from extreme northeastern Mexico to the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday,” the hurricane center said. Flash flooding and urban flooding are likely in the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.

    The National Weather Service said much of central and eastern Louisiana and Mississippi are expected to see rainfall amounts of between 4 and 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters), with up to 12 inches (30 centimeters) in some places, through Thursday night.

    Francine Spaghetti Models

    Spaghetti models encompass a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.

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    Eira Gwyneth
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