The Atlanta Falcons had a tremendous five-game stretch last week, beating their two closest rivals in the NFC South back-to-back in front of their home fans.

Thanks to the tiebreakers, all of which are under their control at the moment, the Falcons now sit atop the league at 3-2. A thrilling win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in prime time gave them real respect on a national level as well. The mood at Georgia State is overwhelming as the fan base gets involved.

Next up for Atlanta is the weak 1-4 Carolina Panthers, who could once again fight for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The Panthers are coming off a loss to the Chicago Bears.

Let’s take a look at the circumstances under which the Falcons beat the Panthers in Week 6 and take a look at the scenario if they lose.

If the Falcons win

They will have emerged unscathed from the early NFC South battle after beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Panthers all in consecutive weeks. Therefore, in the worst case scenario, there will be a split in division play this season.

They will go 4-2 overall, 3-0 in the NFC South and 4-0 in the NFC overall. Every tiebreaker you can imagine will now be decisive for Atlanta, and this will be their first 4-2 start to a season since that magical season in 2016.

No matter what happens, the Falcons will solidify their first place in the division, but what’s most tempting is that one of the Buccaneers or Saints, who play each other this weekend, will lose pace with them. Either Tampa falls to .500 and the Birds take sole possession of the top spot, or New Orleans falls to a full two games behind the Falcons and Bucs.

More than anything, the Falcons will have to overcome one more hurdle to fully gain the trust of their fan base. No road division game is straightforward, but on paper the Panthers are a bad football team – they’re 1-4 and have by far the worst net point differential in the league (-82, with the next closest team at -53). Atlanta has an opportunity to show that they can actually hold their own against inferior opponents, rather than downplaying their competition like so many Falcons teams have in recent years.

Avoiding disappointment in trap games like this will go a long way toward proving that this team is for real, just as beating the good teams will do the same.

If the Falcons lose

They will fall to .500 at 3-3 and suffer their first blemish in both the division and conference. This is only their second away game in the first six weeks and they will have a tied record both at home (2-2) and away (1-1) – right in the middle, around the 1/3 mark of the season .

If New Orleans wins this weekend, the NFC South will either become a massed bloodbath with three 3-3 teams and one 2-4 team, or Tampa Bay will regain the first-place lead they had last Thursday night 4-2 against Atlanta had them one game behind and one game ahead of the Saints and Panthers.

For the fifth straight season, the Falcons will be unable to beat Carolina, something they did three times in Dan Quinn’s last four full seasons as Falcons head coach before four straight years of splits between 2020 and 2023 came.

The momentum and good spirit that this team has built up so far this season will completely deflate like a balloon. I wouldn’t blame those in this fanbase who will inevitably have the “here we go again” mentality regarding this franchise, which will once again struggle to prevail against opponents.

Atlanta faces another tough part of the schedule after this weekend, with games against the Cowboys and Seahawks and away rematches against the Saints and Buccaneers over the next month. It is much more difficult to enter this phase with a score of 3:3 than with a score of 4:2.