When former Patriots manager Nick Caserio became general manager in Houston, the Texans were in transition after a 4-12 season.

For Caserio, it took two more losing seasons for Houston to get off the mat. The Texans won a total of seven games, had multiple head coaches and a major quarterback change. Whatever the Patriots experience, Houston has become a darling of the AFC.

The Texans are on a roll after signing head coach DeMeco Ryans, drafting star QB CJ Stroud and the collection of first-round picks. Houston went 10-7 in Ryan and Stroud’s first season with the team and won a playoff game to reach the divisional round. This season, the Texans have the second-best record in the AFC at 4-1 after beating the Bills at the buzzer last week.

Even though things are rocky in Foxborough, the Texans have given a blueprint to the rebuilding Patriots, right down to an early first-round quarterback and a former linebacker turned head coach. Ryans, who was named the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year, has a similar resume to head coach Jerod Mayo. After a 10-year playing career, Ryans spent six seasons on 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s defensive staff. Ryans eventually became San Francisco’s defensive coordinator for two seasons before becoming head coach.

After playing for the Patriots for eight seasons, Coach Mayo was on former head coach Bill Belichick’s staff for five seasons. Mayo and Ryans also took over as first head coaches before turning 40. The parallels between these two organizations should give Patriots fans hope for the future: a Belichick disciple as GM, Mayo-Ryan similarities and two early first-round quarterbacks.

Speaking of the future and quarterback, Maye will make his first career start in Sunday’s game at Gillette Stadium. It’s the start of a new era in New England, and since we’re going to fail in this area, Maye will face a tough test from the start against an AFC contender. Houston currently ranks seventh overall (DVOA) and has the third-best defense in the NFL through five weeks. The Texans also have the best pass rush in the league, with a pressure rate of 42%. Still, this is an exciting development for an offense that needs the talented rookie to give them a spark.

Here’s a breakdown of both sides of the ball and key matchups as the Patriots host the Texans at Gillette Stadium on Sunday:

Patriots offense vs. Texans defense: Developing a game plan for Mayes’ first career start

Before we get into the Texans’ defense, let’s first discuss what the lineup might look like for Maye in his first career start for the Patriots (I still can’t believe it).

Over the summer, we asked offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt about his offense, focusing on the play under center. Through the first five weeks, New England was under center on 38% of its offensive plays, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. The reason for the question was that Maye operated in North Carolina almost exclusively with a shotgun or pistol. Then, in 50 drop-backs between the preseason and regular season, Maye was under center in just four games (8%). Here’s what the Pats OC said back in August:

“In our system we play under center. Our running game is a big part of what we do, and that starts under center. I think he has adapted well. “It was foreign to him when he came here, but now it looks seamless,” Van Pelt said.

Van Pelt seemed encouraged by Maye’s progress in preseason. That could mean that with the Patriots trailing the Jets by three points, the situation doesn’t make sense for them under center. There’s also a world where AVP runs its pistol under-center offense, where the runner can still run in either direction behind the quarterback and you can play an action pass with your back on the quarterback turn to defense.

In addition to deciding how to line up the quarterback with Maye, the rookie’s most common throwing routes were hits, flats and crossers, with the majority of his throws being in-break routes (31%). He also threw primarily in quick play or rhythm rather than in extended plays. Here were some replays we saw on film when Maye got his chances.