Michigan’s national title defense has been disappointing this year and its 4-2 record is misleading.

The No. 24 Wolverines narrowly escaped defeats against USC and Minnesota before losing to Washington.

After a bye week, can coach Sheronne Moore right the ship with a tryout against No. 22 Illinois?

We’ve seen a steady flow of money from Michigan all week, moving this line from an opening -1.5 for the Wolverines to the current -4.5.

Let’s dive in and see if Saturday’s Big Ten matchup still offers value.

Michigan vs Illinois odds

When Michigan has the ball

Moore won’t admit it publicly, but I firmly believe he intended to name Jack Tuttle his starting quarterback this season. However, an offseason elbow injury put a damper on those plans, and we didn’t see Tuttle until the second quarter against Washington.

Tuttle had an interception and a fumble in the game, but they were his first live reps in nearly a year, and he is a better downfield passer than Alex Orji or Davis Warren.

I expect Tuttle to have a much cleaner game this week as he has a bye week to get up to speed on offense. Also crucial will be tight end Colston Loveland’s return to full health after missing the USC game.

However, I don’t expect Tuttle to have to do much in this game. The Wolverines will bully an Illini run defense that ranks 105th in defensive line yards. Expect Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards to provide a ton of yards and keep Tuttle out of obvious passing situations on third-and-long.

When Illinois has the ball

Luke Altmyer had a strong season under center for the Illini, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and 14 touchdowns with one interception.

However, according to Pro Football Focus, the former Ole Miss transfer is likely to regress negatively with nine big throws and nine turnover-worthy plays.

Altmyer particularly struggled under pressure with a turnover-worthy play rate of 8.4%. According to PFF, Michigan has the best pass-rush unit in the country and Illinois ranks just 93rd in pass blocking.

Elite defensive linemen Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Josaiah Stewart can take over this game through passes.

It will be difficult for the Illini to avoid these obvious passing situations, as Michigan ranks third nationally in rushing success rate allowed and Illinois ranks 105th in rushing success rate on offense.

When the Illini faced Penn State, a similarly elite run defense, their running backs scored 17 carries for just 62 yards (3.6 YPC).

Michigan vs. Illinois selection

It’s worth noting that Illinois almost lost to Purdue last week. The Illini escaped with a point win in overtime, but the Boilermakers had a 69% win expectation after the game.

This was the same Purdue team that had lost to Wisconsin by 46 points the week before and had not gotten within 17 points of an FBS opponent all season.

After a week of release with an opportunity to get his third starting quarterback of the year up to speed, this appears to be a solid buy low point for the Wolverines.

Betting on college football?

Michigan’s defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I trust Wink Martindale’s group to constantly pressure Altmyer, especially given Illinois’ difficult running game.

I would be surprised if Michigan’s passing attack performed mediocre the rest of the season. However, given the significant advantage the Wolverines should have in the run game, that may not be necessary this week.

I’m backing Michigan as the away favorite at this point against an overrated Illinois team that’s primed to come back down to earth.

Best bet: Michigan -3.5 (-115, BetMGM)

Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.