The day of the first hard frost is serious business for many in Missouri whose systems are not designed for cold temperatures. As the story goes, sub-freezing temperatures are expected sooner rather than later.

The National Weather Service in St. Louis, Missouri, released one of the most detailed graphics I’ve ever seen from them, packed with information. It includes 8 different locations in Missouri as well as several from nearby Illinois and includes the dates of first frost, first frost and hard frost.

They include the earliest date for each of these events at each of these locations in Missouri, as well as the average and latest. Like I said, lots of helpful weather information for sub-zero temperatures.

If you look at the first date of a hard freeze in Missouri, you will find that on average it is around late October or early November. However, it is also worth noting that this also happened in early October.

If I had to guess (and that would be all), I would estimate that subzero temperatures will begin in November, not October, based on the warm and dry conditions the National Weather Service is predicting through the middle of the month as of this writing.

Time will tell when temperatures finally drop below freezing and stay there. I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen in early November, but Missouri weather loves to be unpredictable, so I reserve the right to be wrong (again).