Votes are still being counted in Nevada’s presidential and Senate elections, and the chances of still winning look very different for Harris and Senator Jacky Rosen.

Harris currently trails Trump in the statewide tally, 47% to 52%, with 93% of expected votes reported. That means Harris would need to win about 83% of the estimated 7% of votes still counted to win the state.

This is a big task. This is especially true when you look at where the votes come from. Clark County, which includes the Las Vegas metropolitan area, is the state’s Democratic stronghold and home to the majority of the state’s voters. Harris needed to win 69% of the vote there to match Biden’s margin in 2020, and according to our benchmarks, he needed to win the county by 6.9% to win the state. But with 95% of expected votes reported, their lead there is just 1 point, 50%, to Trump’s 49%. Most of the state’s remaining votes come from nearby Nye County, which has reported just 36% of expected votes so far. Trump leads there 83% to 16%, and he was always likely to win there. Their share of the state’s total population is smaller, but Trump is exceeding his benchmark margins there.

About 12% of expected votes have yet to be reported in the race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen and Republican challenger Sam Brown. Rosen would need to win a little more than half, about 52%, of those votes to overtake Brown’s current half-point lead. In Clark County, Rosen’s stronghold, 94% of expected votes go to the polls, but she is doing better than Harris.

But the Senate race is still close and has yet to be predicted.