UFC 307 takes place this Saturday at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, with two title fights and 10 other top duels. In the main event Alex Pereira puts his light heavyweight title on the line Khalil Roundtree Jr. and in the co-main event, women’s bantamweight world champion Raquel Pennington makes the first defense of her belt against the former champion Julianna Pena. Find out which fights are worth betting on this weekend.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sports Betting.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

Straight bets

Julianna Pena (+140)

Let’s start with the cons of this bet: Peña hasn’t fought in two years, she hasn’t won a fight in almost three years, and she has no victories over fighters currently competing in the UFC. That’s not great!

However, Peña has two very important things working in her favor. Firstly, she is a good grappler and wrestler. Pennington is something of a jack-of-all-trades, but in the past one of the most successful strategies against them has been to score takedowns since Pennington is not a threat behind them.

Second, Peña is harder than advanced algebra and has absolutely no ending in it. If something doesn’t work, she will persist in trying until it does. That kind of tireless effort makes her a more effective striker than she should be, and should play into her hands in the championship rounds of this fight.

Ultimately, this is a coin toss fight as Pennington is good but not incredible, and therefore Peña is valuable.

Jose Aldo (+118)

Jose Aldo is one of the six greatest fighters of all time. Mario Bautista is a very good fighter, but the gap between “very good” and “Pantheon level” is huge. Even at his advanced age, Aldo is still a master and can get the fight he wants. More specifically, he is one of my favorite fighters of all time and I will always back him to win.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop bets

Kayla Harrison by KO/TKO or submission (+105)

Harrison faces Ketlen Vieira on the main card in a match that is more or less a setup fight to win Harrison the bantamweight title.

Harrison is a two-time Olympic judoka champion and a physical force of nature. If Vieira could keep this fight going, she would have a chance. But she simply won’t be able to do that against Harrison, meaning the question is whether or not Harrison can accomplish the goal. Vieira has proven to be very durable in her career, but this version of Harrison is a completely different beast and I think she pulls off the expressive finish.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Parlays

There’s nothing I love more than a gimmick competition, and this week there are two prime opportunities. The first is the Pennington Parlay, which I’m passing along because of my support for Peña this week. The second is the Glory Parlay.

Pereira is known to be a two-division glory kickboxing champion, where he had a (lesser known) rivalry with Cesar Almeida. Now the two men are in the UFC, training together under Glover Teixeira, and are the heavy favorites at UFC 307.

Alex Pereira (-506)

As for the actual fight, I wrote a big synopsis over at SB Nation so you should check that out, but the short version is that Pereira will most likely beat anyone who willingly agrees to a kickboxing fight with him, what is that, what Rountree will do.

Cesar Almeida (-400)

And in the prelims, the same dynamic plays out as Almeida takes on Ihor Potieria, the man who famously ended Shogun Rua’s MMA career. This is basically an off-brand version of the main event, and the result is similar to what you’d expect.

Combine these two bets for odds of -212

Wrap up

UFC Paris was a mixed bag. With Renato Moicano’s win we picked up a big underdog but lost everything else, which is obviously far from ideal. Let’s hope we feel better this weekend,

Until next week, enjoy the battles, good luck, and play responsibly!

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