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Two new storms bring rain, wind and high surf
New Jersey

Two new storms bring rain, wind and high surf

In no time, the Atlantic tropical season has begun again. Just this morning, two new tropical systems found their place on the map.

At 10 a.m. CDT, Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.3 N, 87.9 W, approximately 25 miles southeast of Belize City, Belize, and 85 miles south-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. Nadine’s maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, while the wind was veering west at 8 mph. It had a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb or 29.53 inches.

Tropical Storm Warnings are available from Belize City, Belize, to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel.

Nadine emerged from a powerful tropical wave that had been moving near the coast of Central America since midweek. It is likely to move further west, reaching Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula today. As Nadine heads to Central America, the region’s mountains quickly become torn apart this weekend. However, tropical moisture will be displaced to the tune of 10 to 20 cm of rain in southern Mexico and Belize.

The weather system, currently known as Nadine, will likely get a second life once it reaches the Pacific Ocean later this weekend. The remaining energy will combine with a new low pressure system developing near the west coast of Mexico, forming a new tropical depression and tropical storm. Because it is a new system rather than a continuation of Nadine, this storm will likely receive a new name, “Kristy,” but will not pose a threat to landfall once it moves away from land.

Not to be outdone, a second tropical storm has formed near the Greater Antilles. At 11 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Oscar was near latitude 21.3 N, 70.2 W, about 190 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas and 495 miles east of Camagüey, Cuba. Oscar was moving westward at a speed of about 13 mph, with a maximum sustained wind of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb or 29.73 inches.

Tropical Storm Warnings apply to the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas in eastern Cuba and a Tropical Storm Watch for Camaguey, Cuba.

Oscar formed from a low pressure system that has been moving steadily westward over the last week or so. After showing little tendency to organize, the thunderstorms intensified this morning, allowing the system to gain circulation and develop into a tropical storm.

Oscar will rotate west and northwest around a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic over the next few days, moving well away from the U.S. East Coast. Eventually, Oscar will turn north and northeast and head toward the open Atlantic.

The main threat from Oscar will be heavy rain and some winds in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, where 4 to 10 inches of rain is expected this weekend. Rain and wind from Oscar will remain well away from the U.S., but the combination of Oscar and another low southeast of New England will lead to periods of high surf along the East Coast. Expect some coastal flooding from Florida to New England over the next few days during high tide cycles, and use caution when venturing out to sea this weekend.

Although there is currently no tropical system that threatens U.S. interests, it is prudent not to let up. This has been a particularly dangerous hurricane season, with five hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf Coast this year, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the last few weeks alone. The season officially lasts until November 30th and storms are common during November and even the off-season.

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