With less than two weeks until Election Day in the United States, polling averages show that the two main presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are effectively tied in most crucial swing states.

To win, a candidate must secure 270 of the 538 votes available. Electoral College votes are distributed among states based on their relative population.

Who is ahead?

As of Wednesday, Vice President Harris is leading the national polls, with a 1.9 percentage point lead over former President Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker.

According to various recent polls, including a Washington Post poll released Monday, 47 percent of registered voters said they would definitely or probably vote for Harris, the Democratic Party nominee. The same percentage expressed support for Trump, the Republican Party nominee.

In contrast, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday showed Harris with a slight lead over Trump at 46 percent, compared to 43 percent for Trump.

President Joe Biden defeated Trump 306 votes to 232 in the Electoral College and had a 4 percent lead in the popular vote. If the national vote margin narrows in 2024, that’s good news for Trump — even if he trails Harris. Candidates have won the presidency despite losing the popular vote before – most recently Trump in 2016 – but never by as large a margin as in 2020.

Ultimately, however, the Electoral College determines the winner of the election, not the national popular vote. Most states lean heavily or clearly toward Republicans or Democrats.

Seven swing states, also known as battleground states, are expected to decide the outcome of the 2024 elections. These are states where competition is particularly tight.

What do the polls say about the swing states?

The seven swing states are Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Together they account for 93 Electoral College votes.

But FiveThirtyEight’s average of recent polls shows Harris and Trump within the polls’ margin of error in each of those seven states. While Trump is ahead by about a percentage point or slightly more in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, the remaining four states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada – are even closer, with less than half a percentage point between the former president and Harris . While Trump is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Harris is narrowly ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.

If the razor-thin margins that poll averages achieve on election night persist, Trump will be favored to win. But even the slightest deviation from him in these key states – or an underestimation of Harris’ support in the polls – could result in a victory for the vice president.

In the 2020 presidential election, Georgia – where Trump is currently leading – flipped from red Republicans to blue Democrats after nearly three decades of voting Republican, and in Arizona – where Trump is also ahead – Democrats won with a narrow lead of 0.3 percentage points.

How trustworthy are surveys?

Election polls predict how the population might vote by surveying a sample of voters. Surveys are most often conducted over the phone or online. In some cases this will be done by mail or in person.

Survey trackers that aggregate a number of surveys are weighted based on a number of factors, such as: B. the sample size of the survey, the quality of the pollster, the timing of the survey and the particular methods used.

According to a Pew Research Center study, trust in public opinion polls was undermined by inaccuracies in 2016 and 2020. In both general elections, many polls failed to accurately measure support for Republican candidates, including Trump.

In the 2022 midterm elections, pollsters made another mistake. Only this time they underestimated Democratic support and predicted a Republican victory, which turned out to be wrong.