TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Depression 14 formed Saturday morning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to FOX 13 News meteorologist Valerie Mills, this system has become significantly more organized over the last 24 hours. The NHC says hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required in parts of Florida on Sunday.

“So at this point we’re watching the west coast of Florida. We had some initial runs that really favored areas south of Tampa Bay, right around the southwest coast,” Mills shared.

Currently, the Gulf of Mexico offers a very favorable environment for strengthening. As the low pressure area moves east, it is expected to become Milton.

There is a range in models from Florida’s Big Bend to the south of the state, but the broadest consensus is for the low pressure system to head toward Tampa Bay.

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Hurricane Hunters are expected to begin traveling in Tropical Depression 14, so we will learn more and likely see adjustments to the overall track/strength of this storm.

Florida will experience heavy rain on Sunday as the storm approaches from the west. Wednesday appears to be the time frame that would make landfall before the storm crosses the state and enters the Atlantic Ocean.

The exact route determines the effects of the storm surge, the strongest winds and the location where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Mills says the state is in for heavy rain, with several inches of rain expected, particularly Monday through Wednesday.

Models vary in strength, so it’s too early to say exactly what kind of winds the storm will bring. Some models depict a tropical storm, others depict a Category 2 hurricane.

The worst of the storm surge will occur south of the center, but the heaviest rainfall will likely occur north of the storm center.

The worst weather will be on Wednesday and the storm is expected to have subsided in the Tampa Bay Area by Wednesday evening.

There is also a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that has little chance of developing over the next few weeks. Hurricane Kirk and Hurricane Leslie will both avoid landfall as they curve north and continue north and east over the next few days.

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