BILOXI, Miss. (WLOX) – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is monitoring the western Caribbean for tropical development.

An extensive low pressure area in the southwest Caribbean Sea is expected to gradually become more organized over the weekend.

High pressure near Florida is expected to steer the disturbance northwest.

Early trends in computer forecast models suggest it could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

While wind shear and dry air typically keep tropical activity to a minimum in November, it is possible that conditions over the southern half of the Gulf will allow a named storm to form. Wind shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico is expected to be relatively low and sea surface temperatures are still very warm.

Until a storm actually forms, models will struggle with the specific details such as the path and intensity of that system.

Early trends suggest wind shear and dry air could increase across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. So as a system strengthens, it could encounter a less favorable environment as it moves further north.

In the meantime, it’s a good idea to keep checking the weather forecast as it’s a good reminder that hurricane season lasts until November.

There is also a low pressure area near Puerto Rico with a low probability of development. While some development of this low is possible, it will likely transition into the broad low in the western Caribbean.

The next name on the list is Rafael.

Hurricane season officially ends at the end of November.

Since 1850, only three hurricanes have hit the United States in November.

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