The Amazon rainforest is home to a diverse range of plant and animal life. This vibrant, green landscape also plays a critical role in addressing the impacts of climate change, storing large amounts of carbon and helping to regulate temperatures and rainfall both regionally and globally.

But with increasing drought, extreme weather and deforestation in the Amazon, trees that absorb carbon through photosynthesis during their lifetime are dying – and release carbon into the atmosphere as they decay. These drought-related tree deaths could transform the rainforest from a carbon sink into a carbon source.

Using models that predict tree mortality and the resulting changes in carbon balance, Yitong Yao and colleagues propose in a new study published in The future of the earththat certain regions of the Amazon rainforest could reach a tipping point by the middle of the 21st century.

The researchers used ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA, a state-of-the-art land surface model, to simulate tree death and regrowth in the Amazon under drought conditions. The model was calibrated and evaluated using historical data from past drought events.

The scientists combined this land surface model with four different climate scenarios to predict further changes in carbon movement and tree loss between now and 2100. Although the four climate models produced different specific results, such as variations in wetting and drying, they all agreed that a warming trend is expected in the coming decades, especially throughout the northeastern Amazon rainforest.

If researchers know which parts of the Amazon rainforest are most at risk of drying out and dying off, they can better assess the region’s carbon footprint – and obtain information about how to protect such a sensitive ecosystem from the effects of climate change.

This story is republished with permission from Eos, hosted by the American Geophysical Union. Read the original story here.