MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) – The weekend forecast isn’t going to be a letdown. Expect more clouds over the weekend with occasional showers each day. We’re continuing to keep an eye on the possibility of a coastal low developing offshore this weekend. A low developing close enough to the Grand Strand will increase the chance of rain for the end of the weekend and into early next week.

According to the National Hurricane Center, “A non-tropical low pressure system could form along a frontal boundary several hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast this weekend. Subtropical or tropical development is then possible during the first half of next week as the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast,” generally toward the Carolinas.

High pressure over New England will prevent the system from heading out to sea, and it will instead be forced to drift toward the coast of the Carolinas. Its exact path is currently uncertain, but will determine how much rain and wind we can expect in our area through early next week.

Strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, along with dry and cool air nearby, will help keep the system from becoming too strong. A strong tropical storm or hurricane is highly unlikely. New data this morning has kept development to a minimum or contained it too far north to bring the heaviest rain to the Grand Strand. Of course, this is just one set of data and we will continue to look for trends and patterns throughout the weekend.

Where exactly this low pressure system develops (or does not develop) will determine how much rain we expect from Sunday into Tuesday.

Ahead of the system, clouds are expected to be partly cloudy with occasional showers today. Most of the rain on Friday will come in the first half of the day. Temperatures will be just above 80 degrees. The chance of a few showers will linger into the evening hours, but less rain is expected for anyone heading to high school football games tonight.

On Saturday, humidity will steadily increase across the region, leading to higher chances of rain and thunderstorm risks at times. With more clouds and rain, temperatures will range between 25 and 27 degrees Celsius.

The risk of occasional showers will remain for Saturday and Sunday as well, with a lower chance of rain compared to yesterday. Based on the latest trends, Sunday or Monday would be the day to see more drenching rain. Of course, this still depends a lot on the track of the developing low pressure system. A track too far east or north would mean less precipitation for our area.

In any case, gusty winds are expected, especially near the beach where gusts can reach speeds of up to 30 miles per hour.

Models continue to disagree on where the heaviest rain will occur, but it could potentially shift to North Carolina or as far south as the Low Country. The official First Alert forecast currently calls for 2 to 4 inches of rain near the beach and 1 to 2 inches inland.

The greatest probability for the heaviest rain is in the developing low pressure system. Where exactly that will be remains the uncertain part of this forecast.

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