As you head into Washington County, you’ll quickly notice the brown, crispy fields. This is a big difference from the beginning of summer when we had full ponds and green fields.

In fact, our weather has turned 180° with rainfall. Although we started the summer very wet, it has now been weeks since many have seen any significant rainfall.

QUESTIONS 2: How much rain do we need to get out of a drought?

In Houston, our last measurable precipitation fell on September 24th (24 days ago), but our last significant precipitation (over a quarter of an inch) fell on September 6th (42 days ago).

It’s no surprise that this week’s drought monitor included a moderate drought for all of Southeast Texas. You’ll find that even Galveston is considered unusually dry.

Every year NOAA releases its winter outlook, and this year’s outlook doesn’t look good for our drought in Southeast Texas. There is a 40-60% chance of below average precipitation. This is consistent with our WeatherBELL Winter Outlook, which also shows below average precipitation across Southeast Texas.

Unfortunately, this means our drought is likely to get worse in the coming weeks and months.

NOAA also includes a temperature forecast, and we’re expected to be warmer than average for Southeast Texas. There is a 70-80% chance that we will experience above average temperatures. This may actually make our drought worse. When we have higher temperatures, we experience more evaporation, which dries out our soil and causes droughts to worsen more quickly.

The WeatherBELL winter outlook agrees with NOAA and predicts winter months will be 3° warmer than average.

So what does that mean? There is no precipitation in the 10-day forecast. The fire bans throughout Southeast Texas are going nowhere. There are no water restrictions at the moment, but that could well change in the coming weeks. I know we are praying for rain for my family in Washington County.

If you have photos of the drought where you live, we’d love to see them. Send them to Click2Pins to be featured on air and online!