With a strong possibility that Alex Bregman will be playing in a different uniform after the offseason, the Houston Astros need to address their situation at third base. Sure, there’s definitely a chance that Bregman returns, especially if Jose Altuve has anything to say about it, but it’s far from certain that Houston will come up with the money to actually make that happen. That could mean the Astros have to get creative.

Complicating the Astros’ plans is the fact that the third base free agent class is pretty bleak this offseason. Eugenio Suarez seemed like an interesting option that would definitely have cost less than Bregman, but it seems very likely that the Diamondbacks will pick up his $15 million club option considering Jordan Lawlar is in the big leagues hasn’t exactly impressed yet.

Outside of internal options (more on that in a moment), Houston is left with limited options.

A recently floated third base option for the Astros that actually makes some sense is trading for Nolan Arenado.

An Astros trade for Nolan Arenado could actually work, but there are some obstacles to overcome

Arenado’s resume as a player is beyond reproach. In addition to being one of the best defensive third basemen of his generation, Arenado is an eight-time All-Star and has posted multiple MVP-caliber seasons during his illustrious career. Even though he appears to be past his prime, as his .272/.325/.394 line in 2024 suggests, he is still a very productive player with a lot of experience, and one wonders if he could turn back time if he didn’t play on what had become a pretty mediocre Cardinals team.

Another point in Arenado’s favor is his remaining contract. While the total value of his existing contract was quite impressive, he is due just $21 million in 2025 and even less over the next two seasons ($16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027). His luxury tax number might be a bit problematic, but it would certainly be cheaper than Bregman’s, and the Cardinals might be motivated to get those luxury tax savings as well.

However, there are some problems here. First, Arenado’s production has declined in recent years, and at 33 years old, there’s no guarantee that his second-worst OPS of .719 in 2024 is an aberration. Arenado also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so any trade would have to get his thumbs up. However, Arenado is keenly aware that his twilight years are approaching, and given that the Astros are real contenders, he may want to take advantage of the chance at a World Series title.

Ultimately, it comes down to asking price, as the Astros’ farm system is relatively flat in terms of talent. If St. Louis wants to take advantage of Arenado’s team control and have a deep package of prospects, Houston will likely need to focus on giving prospects like Brice Matthews a chance in 2025 or consider a stopgap measure.

However, if the Cardinals just want to adjust their payroll and value those savings highly, a deal from Houston for Arenado makes a lot more sense.

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