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    • The odds for the presidential election are changing: what polls say, bettors say
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    The odds for the presidential election are changing: what polls say, bettors say

    Eira Gwyneth Posted on

    We are just five days away from Election Day and polls, pundits and experts continue to tell us that the 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump appears to be extremely close.

    That’s not the message offshore betting markets have been sending in recent weeks.

    The rift between Harris and Trump is widening at Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, and two major UK betting platforms, Sporting Index and Betfair Exchange. On Wednesday evening, Betfair’s temperature gauge pointed to a “likely” victory for Trump.

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    How the betting markets changed in October

    At Polymarket, Trump and Harris’ win probabilities were 49% as of October 3rd. Since then, Trump’s chances of defeating Harris rose Tuesday to their highest level since July 21, the day President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

    Can’t see our graphics? Click here to see them.

    The initial surge in Trump’s chances of winning was accompanied by a slight increase in his poll numbers in battleground states like Pennsylvania this month. However, some have questioned the rapid and significant increase in his probability of winning. They have suggested that financially strong players could manipulate the betting markets. Polymarket officials have said they are investigating these claims.

    The gap between Trump and Harris’ chances of winning is now as wide as the gap between Biden and Trump in the 2020 election. But the gap in the polls in the battleground states is not comparable. Biden’s lead in the polls in 2020 was three times that between Trump and Harris.

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    Comparing Polling and Gambling Odds in the 2020 and 2024 Elections

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    Election forecaster sticks with Kamala Harris’ victory prediction

    Allan Lichtman, renowned election forecaster, has successfully predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections.

    States where polls show the race is still undecided

    Real Clear Politics summarizes polls and highlights trends in their results. Eight battleground states with 103 electoral votes are still considered to be tosses because the poll results remain within the margin of error. Offshore bettors have increased the odds of Trump winning all but two of these states. However, recent polls show the gap between Harris and Trump in the eight states to be one point or less.

    Bettors rate Trump’s probability of winning higher than in previous elections

    Trump’s probability of victory is now just a few percentage points below the high the campaign reached on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his odds of defeating Biden were over 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

    According to a 2004 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite only lost twice in the month before the election, in 1916 and 1948. Betting markets also failed to predict Trump’s victory in 2016.

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    Eira Gwyneth
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