Last year, the Boston region had one of the warmest winters on record (Vermont and New Hampshire had their warmest) and, as a result, one of the least snowy. Boston saw a sharp drop from average snowfall, totaling a measly 9.8 inches, the fourth lowest snowfall since records began in 1890. The previous year, the winter of 2022-23, which was also a mild season, saw just 12.4 inches of snow.

For nearly a decade, the average winter temperature in the Northeast has been well above normal, with the thermometer rising at least 2 degrees above average in many areas over the past two seasons. In the Boston area, the temperature has risen about 4 degrees over the past two winters.

Below you can see the trend of higher than average temperatures in recent years during Boston area winters.

Any increasing development of a La Niña will impact our winter here in New England. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, where sea surface temperatures are cooler than average off the west coast of South America in the equatorial Pacific. This happens when the western trade winds at the equator become stronger than normal, pushing surface water far west. This water needs to be replaced with cooler water rising from the depths of the ocean.

“When the pattern is active, it can move around atmospheric patterns in a somewhat predictable way,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The stronger the La Niña, the easier it is to predict and track storm frequency.

“If there is a weak or absent La Niña, the crystal ball forecast becomes blurry.”

During a La Niña, the jet stream is often shifted northward and can lead to cooler and wetter conditions across New England, especially away from the coast – meaning more snow for Vermont and New Hampshire.

But NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently predicts a 60 percent chance that a weak La Niña will develop before winter and last through March 2025. The forecast trend for a wintry La Niña has actually declined in recent weeks.

“We only consider it a La Niña event if below-average sea surface temperatures last at least five overlapping months, and this one should just about make it,” L’Heureux said.

To support their predictions, meteorologists often compare years with similar conditions. The last time a weak, short-lived La Niña continued into the winter after a more neutral summer was the winter of 2016-17.

To put it simply, any La Niña influences have been canceled out this season. Average temperatures across the Northeast ended up being the seventh warmest on record, while all six New England states finished with a top 10 warmest winter season.

Even precipitation didn’t see the typical La Niña surge, with New England remaining slightly below normal. The exception was Maine, where slightly above-average numbers were recorded.

This means interior parts of New England, like Vermont and New Hampshire, could see more cool and wet La Niña conditions, making for some nice snowy ski areas this winter.

The Boston area receives an average of 37.7 inches of snow from December to February, according to Matthew Belk, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Norton. “Although a higher chance of above-average temperatures does not mean no snow is possible in Boston at all. It will really depend on the timing of individual events,” such as snowstorms.

Aside from the possible impacts of La Niña, it is very hard to ignore the alarming trends of climate change, which will play a major role this season.

The atmosphere and oceans continue to get warmer. Hotter oceans evaporate more water and a warmer atmosphere can retain more water vapor – all leading to greater precipitation potential across the region. These trends strongly influence the forecast and suggest that with more moisture in the atmosphere, there will generally be above-average heat and precipitation this winter.

“The average temperatures in the Northeast last winter were the warmest since records began in the late 19th century,” said Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center. “The average for the region was nearly 8 degrees warmer than the 20th century average and nearly 5½ degrees above the 30-year normal.”

Last winter was also the first time on record that the average winter temperature in the Northeast remained above freezing at 32.1 degrees. Only four winters since 2000 have been below the 20th century average, as shown below.

A similar pattern can be observed in the overall increase in precipitation in the Northeast since 2000.

A warmer-than-average ocean can certainly impact the track and intensity of an individual storm – especially as North Atlantic waters continue to reach record daily highs into the winter.

Coastal storms may become stronger over warmer waters. A La Niña winter typically reduces the number of coastal storms and nor’easters by shifting the jet stream away from the coast. But La Niña or not, a warm ocean and atmosphere can easily create a system that blows moisture-rich air from the North Atlantic onto land, increasing heavy rain, snow and wind.

Boston hasn’t experienced an attention-grabbing winter since the record-breaking 2014-15 season, which saw nearly 100 inches of snowfall. The strange thing about it? We were in the middle of a sustained El Niño event – the exact opposite of what is likely to happen this season.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.