The situation in the WNBA playoffs is slowly taking shape. After Tuesday’s games, seven of the eight spots have already been decided – the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever secured their spots within minutes, while the Chicago Sky and Atlanta Dream both lost – and certain rankings are starting to emerge.

Still, there are plenty of exciting events in the final stretch of the regular season – whether they’re fighting for a better ranking or simply a spot in the postseason.

Since the season resumed after the Olympic break, the focus has been on which teams are on the rise (Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever) and which are in the relegation battle (Seattle Storm and Chicago Sky). But with 16 days to go before the end of the regular season, either could impact the upcoming playoff race – a race with a litany of contenders.

As the postseason approaches, ESPN’s Michael Voepel and Alexa Philippou ask the five most important questions about the WNBA and try to answer them.

Who will take the eighth playoff spot?

Although Phoenix and Indiana officially announced their decisions on Tuesday, the race for eighth place is still wide open. Chicago looked to be in contention for the spot in the first half of the season, but has the league’s worst active losing streak (seven games) and lost all but one game after the Olympics. Atlanta started strong in August with three straight wins, but then lost five of six games. Both teams are tied at 11-22. The Washington Mystics and Dallas Wings are also not completely out of the race, trailing Chicago/Atlanta by just one and two games respectively.

According to ESPN Analytics, the final playoff spot will go to either the Dream (53.7%) or the Sky (36.5%), giving greater significance to their Sept. 17 meeting in Atlanta (note that the Sky currently hold a 2-1 lead in the season series). Now healthy, with Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard back in the fold, can the Dream consistently play to their potential?

Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine Chicago changing course without leading scorer Chennedy Carter, who has missed five games since the Olympics due to illness. And even then, Sky’s record is just 1-3 when she’s been in action. — Alexa Philippou

Who will be the last host of the first round?

The top four teams will host the first round of playoffs. The New York Liberty are guaranteed to be one of those teams; the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota are also all but certain. All three have established themselves as the top contenders for the championship.

The last host spot will probably be decided between the Las Vegas Aces (21-12), Seattle (20-13) and possibly even Indiana (17-16).

The Aces have had more ups and downs than expected, but they still have clear MVP favorite A’ja Wilson. She and Las Vegas’ other star players – Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young – have combined to go 16-3 in the playoffs and win the championship the last two years. Replaying as a higher seed would give them a boost for 2024.

Coach Becky Hammon said Tuesday she’s less concerned about that than about getting the Aces where they’ll be at their best when it matters most: the postseason. Plum didn’t play in Tuesday’s 90-71 win over Chicago because of an ankle problem, and Hammon said resting her was more of a precautionary measure, similar to how she took Young out of last Friday’s game against Atlanta.

Seattle missed the playoffs last season but then signed key free agent talent in Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith. The Storm’s defense has been good overall but has let them down in four of their losses since the Olympic break. At their best – like in Tuesday’s 71-64 win at Connecticut – they can still challenge for the final host spot. If Las Vegas and Seattle finish the regular season with the same score, keep in mind that the Aces lead their season series 2-1 and the teams will meet again on Sept. 17 in Seattle.

Indiana has the most catching up to do, but also has to hope for a loss from the Aces and Storm. One advantage for the Fever: Six of their last seven games are home games. — Michael Voepel

Is New York still the favorite to win the championship?

No. The first-place Liberty have not been the league’s best team in the second half, losing two of their last four games (at home to the Sun and away to the last-place Los Angeles Sparks). They had four Olympians and coach Sandy Brondello in Paris, so post-Olympic fatigue could be a factor.

However, the Liberty were without Betnijah Laney-Hamilton in the loss to Connecticut, whom they had dominated 3-1 in the season series. The loss to the Sparks was admittedly worse, but Jonquel Jones was absent there due to a non-COVID illness. Sabrina Ionescu also missed two games due to a neck issue that seemed to disrupt her rhythm. All three are now back, giving the Liberty a more complete roster than the one they had for most of the summer. The availability of Laney-Hamilton, who underwent minor knee surgery in July, remains key to championship success.

New York could still make up for its turnovers — it’s averaged 16.1 per game since the break, second-most in the league — but its top-notch defense has it with the best second-half net rating (plus-13.2). Another good sign: Breanna Stewart has two straight 30-pointers and has sunk 44.1% of her threes since the Olympics.

A strong week against the Storm on Thursday and the Aces on Sunday would dispel any doubts that New York is in a slump. — Philippou

What is the Fever’s postseason goal?

A place in the semifinals is possible because the Fever’s offense is difficult to stop and they have improved defensively.

The Fever have been waiting to get back to the postseason since 2016, but once the initial excitement is over, they can focus on competing.

Indiana has defeated every team except Las Vegas at least once this season.

Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark have played better offensively than any other guard duo in the league since the Olympics. Lexie Hull has shined as both a reserve and a starter over the last three games. Speaking of the bench, experienced post players like Damiris Dantas and Temi Fagbenle contribute offensively and defensively, making the Fever a stronger team. And Indiana has become more confident in its ability to finish strong in close games.

If they don’t host in the first round, the Fever will have to win a road game in the best-of-three series to have a chance to play in front of their home crowd in a decisive third game. It could be quite a sight: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, which rocked most of this season even before the Fever’s winning streak, finally gets another playoff game. — Voepel

Are the Aces still chasing their third win in a row?

The Aces were clear favorites for the WNBA Finals in 2022 and last season. This year is expected to be more challenging, with a potentially tough first-round series and an even tougher semifinal series (likely against New York).

It’s a little difficult to pinpoint exactly why the Aces haven’t been as efficient as they were last year. Gray started the season late (June 19) because she was still rehabbing a foot injury she suffered in last year’s WNBA finals. She posted her first double-double of the season (13 points, 10 assists) in Tuesday’s 90-71 win over Chicago.

The core players (Wilson, Gray, Young and Plum) all played on the U.S. Olympic team and got less rest than players on other teams. Hammon pointed to moments when the Aces make mental mistakes on defense that we’re not used to seeing from them. Wilson is used to carrying a big workload, but at times she’s had to do practically everything herself.

Let’s also not forget that the Aces are still the defending champions, and while the teams have exposed some of their weaknesses this season, the Aces still have tremendous individual talent and experience in winning together.

And maybe they can get used to the idea of ​​being “underdogs” – as strange as that may sound – and put the pressure on their opponents in the playoffs. Bottom line: They’re still in the race. — Voepel