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The first upward barrier occurs at 164.00
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The first upward barrier occurs at 164.00

  • EUR/JPY is trading weaker at 163.55 in early Asian trading on Friday.
  • The cross resumes its uptrend above the 100-period EMA with a bullish RSI indicator.
  • The immediate resistance is at 164.00; the 163.10-163.00 area acts as an initial support level.

The EUR/JPY pair is trading weaker at around 163.55, ending a four-day winning streak during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese yen (JPY) is rising slightly after Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) came in stronger than expected, growing 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. The encouraging GDP growth numbers reinforce the possibility of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

The cross continues its uptrend on the 4-hour chart, with the price above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline at 68.50, suggesting that bearish oscillations are present.

The potential upside barrier for EUR/JPY is the psychological level of 164.00. A sustained break above this level will suggest a continuation of the rally to 164.89, a low from July 25. Further gains will lead to a rally to 166.56, a high from July 31.

On the downside, the 163.10-163.00 zone acts as an initial support level for the cross. The additional downside filter to watch is at 161.95, a low from August 15. The next conflict level is seen at 160.59, a low from August 14.

EUR/JPY 4-hour chart

Frequently asked questions about the Japanese yen

The Japanese yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, more specifically by the policies of the Bank of Japan, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields or the risk appetite of traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s responsibilities is currency control, so its actions are crucial for the yen. The BoJ has sometimes intervened directly in foreign exchange markets, generally to lower the value of the yen, although it often refrains from doing so due to political concerns among its major trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive economic stimulus, has led to a depreciation of the yen against its major counterpart currencies. This process has recently worsened due to a growing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to combat decades of high inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a growing divergence in its policies with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This is leading to a widening of the spread between the US and Japanese 10-year bonds, favoring the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often viewed as a safe haven asset. This means that during times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency because it is seen as reliable and stable. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the yen’s value against other currencies that are considered riskier.

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