With the 2024 US presidential election just around the corner, it will be that time up to the seven swing states to determine the fate of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris60, and her Republican rival and former president Donald Trump78. These key states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – have 93 electoral votes and are key battlegrounds as both candidates fight for 270 of the 538 total electoral votes needed for the presidency.

Swing states or battleground states are states that can switch between Democratic and Republican support depending on the election. These states, with historically narrow voting margins and varying results over time, are drawing the attention of candidates who are focusing their campaigns there to influence voters and secure crucial electoral votes. On the final day of the campaign, both Harris and Trump held marathon rallies in Pennsylvania, the largest of the swing states with 19 electoral votes.

The The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5th.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE MAIN SWING STATES

While all seven states are crucial to any election campaign, three states in particular – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – are crucial to Harris’ path to victory. Known as the “Blue Wall,” these states were reliable Democratic strongholds until Trump dissolved all three states in 2016, breaking Democrats’ winning streak in the region.

In 2020, Joe Biden recaptured these states for Democrats, but by narrow margins, highlighting their competitive nature and making them must-wins for Harris in 2024.

• Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): Historically, Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic, but Trump’s narrow victory in 2016 by just 0.7% underscored its status as a battleground. In 2020, Biden retook Pennsylvania by a 1.2% margin, but the country remains fiercely contested. Since the state has 19 electoral votes, a Pennsylvania victory would provide a significant boost to Harris’ White House hopes. Both campaigns passionately courted the state’s large working class and unionized communities.

• Michigan (15 electoral votes): Michigan, another important part of the “Blue Wall,” has always voted for the winning candidate in recent elections. Trump’s victory in Michigan in 2016 was a major upset, marking the first Republican victory there since 1988. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by a margin of about 154,000 votes, thanks in part to support from the state’s significant Arab-American population was thanks. Remaining in Michigan in 2024 is considered crucial for Harris, as his 15 electoral votes could prove crucial in a tight race.

• Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): The state has voted for the winning candidate in the last two elections, but by a razor-thin margin. Winning Wisconsin will be crucial for Harris, as winning or maintaining victory could determine the overall balance in a close election.

THE REMAINING BATTLEFIELDS

In addition to the “Blue Wall”, there are four other battlefield states in the game:

• Arizona (11 electoral votes): Biden’s 2020 victory in Arizona made him only the second Democrat in 70 years to win the state, albeit by a narrow margin of 10,457 votes. With a large suburban and Latino voter base, Arizona remains a top priority for both campaigns.

• Georgia (16 electoral votes): Biden narrowly defeated Georgia in 2020, the first Democratic victory there since 1992, largely due to high turnout among African Americans, who make up a significant portion of the state’s population. Another victory in Georgia could boost Harris’ voter base and further solidify Democrats’ strength in the Sun Belt.

• North Carolina (16 electoral votes): Despite its Republican-leaning history, North Carolina remains competitive. Trump won by narrower margins in 2016 and 2020, but growing urban centers and changing demographics mean both parties remain in contention for victory.

• Nevada (6 electoral votes): Nevada, which typically leans Democratic, has shown signs of a possible Republican resurgence due to high unemployment and economic challenges. Biden won Nevada by around 33,600 votes in 2020, but with issues such as post-coronavirus recovery at the forefront, Nevada could slip into the red in 2024.

WAY TO VICTORY

Nonpartisan analysts estimate Harris needs about 45 electoral votes beyond her expected “safe” states to reach 270, betting heavily on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Securing these three “Blue Wall” states could give her a strong path to victory.

For Trump, the path to 270 would likely require retaking key battlegrounds he won in 2016, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan, as well as successes in historically Democratic states like North Carolina.

In the run-up to the election, both Harris and Trump campaigned heavily in these swing states. Harris has highlighted themes of unity and community and sought to solidify support within the Blue Wall and Sunbelt states. On the other hand, Trump focused on criticizing the current administration and promising economic recovery.