Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is the favorite to win re-election ahead of his Democratic rival Colin Allred in November, although some polls suggest the race could be close.

Prognosticators predict the incumbent Republican will defeat Allred in the Nov. 5 election as the congressman seeks to become the first Democrat since 1988 to win a bid for the U.S. Senate in Texas.

Texas and Florida have been identified by Democrats as potential candidates for the party in both the statewide election and next week’s presidential election. If Allred Cruz were to flip the Senate seat, it would play a major role in helping Democrats maintain control of the upper chamber, where they have a 51-49 seat majority.

Prediction and poll aggregator website 538 projects Cruz to have an average lead of 3.4 points over his Democratic challenger. The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill national average shows Cruz with a 3.1-point lead, with the forecaster giving the Republican a 76 percent chance of winning on Nov. 5.

A recent internal poll conducted by Democratic pollster GBAO Strategies for Allred’s campaign found the candidates tied at 46 percent. The poll was conducted Oct. 18-23 among 800 likely voters and does not allow for margin of error.

Newsweek emailed Cruz and Allred’s campaign teams for comment.

Allred cited the GBAO poll results in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, just over a week before the Texas election.

“We started the season seven points behind and based on our performance at the base, the race is now a draw,” Allred posted. “We are in the fourth quarter with eight days to go and no more timeouts.”

Other recent polls have shown Cruz leading Allred in the race for the Texas Senate seat.

An Activote poll of 400 likely voters showed Cruz with a 5-point lead over Allred (52 percent to 47 percent). The poll was conducted between October 21 and 27, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

A New York Times/A Siena College poll of 1,180 likely voters from Oct. 23 to 26 showed Cruz with a 4-point lead over Allred (50 percent to 46 percent). The poll was conducted October 23-26, with results having a margin of error of around 3 percentage points in both cases.

Both polls show Cruz with a larger lead over Allred than the Republican had in the 2018 race against Beto O’Rourke. Cruz defeated the former Democratic congressman by 2.6 points in a closely contested and, at the time, most expensive Senate race in history.

A poll from Emerson College Polling/The Hill suggests the race between Cruz and Allred is closer. In the poll of 815 likely voters, Cruz had a one-point lead over Allred (48 percent to 47 percent). Cruz’s support fell 1 point compared to a previous poll in September, while Allred’s support rose 2 points.

“Allred’s profile has improved since last month; 18 percent had never heard of him in early September, dropped to 15 percent at the end of September and to 10 percent this month,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in an interview statement.

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Oct. 18-21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Race to the White House forecasters give Cruz a 74 percent chance of being re-elected in November.