The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.65% today, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.07% and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.22%.

Stock prices are up moderately today, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 hitting new all-time highs. Stocks added to their post-election gains today on speculation that President-elect Trump will boost corporate profits through his pro-growth policies. Strength in chip stocks is also buoying the overall market, led by a +5% rise in ARM Holdings Plc after the company reported second-quarter earnings and revenue above consensus. Today’s US economic news was mixed. Weekly jobless claims rose less than expected, but nonfarm productivity rose less than expected in the first quarter and unit labor costs rose more than expected in the first quarter.

US weekly initial jobless claims rose +3,000 to 221,000, showing a stronger than expected job market of 222,000.

Non-farm productivity in the US rose +2.2% in the third quarter, weaker than expectations of +2.5%. Unit labor costs rose by +1.9% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations of +1.0%.

Global equity markets continue to receive support from today’s +2% rise in China’s Shanghai Composite Stock Index to a 4-week high on signs of strength in the Chinese economy, which is positive for the global growth outlook. Today’s news showed that Chinese exports rose +12.7% y/y in October, stronger than expected +5.0% y/y and the biggest increase in two and a half years. However, China’s imports fell -2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.0% y/y.

Markets are focused on (1) the results of today’s FOMC meeting (-25 basis point rate cut expected) and Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting comments, and (2) the S&P’s nearly 20% third quarter corporate earnings results 500 companies are due to report this week.

Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results so far, 78% beat estimates. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report an average increase in quarterly earnings of +4.3% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from the +7.9% year-over-year growth consensus in July, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Markets are discounting the odds of a -25 basis point rate cut at today’s FOMC meeting at 100% and a -50 basis point rate cut at this meeting at 0%.

Stock markets abroad are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.13%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed to a 4-week high and closed +2.57%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a 3-week high to close -0.25% lower.

Interest rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) are up +16 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield fell -7.1 basis points to 4.361%. December T-notes are moderately higher as the FOMC is expected to cut the Fed funds target range by -25 basis points later in the day. Treasuries are also enjoying some short-selling coverage from bond traders, who are covering short protections they placed on Treasuries at this week’s quarterly redemption, in which the Treasury auctioned $125 billion in Treasuries and Treasuries.

T-note gains are limited after weekly U.S. jobless claims rose less than expected, a sign of labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy. Additionally, non-farm productivity increased less than expected in the first quarter and unit labor costs increased more than expected in the first quarter, which are negative factors for T-Notes. Additionally, today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high has somewhat curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.

European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German Bund yield climbed to a 3-1/2-month high of 2.498% and is up +1.3 basis points to 2.417%. The 10-year UK government bond yield fell -7.5 basis points to 4.487%.

Eurozone retail sales rose +0.5% m/m in September, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m, and August grew to +0.2% m/m from the previously reported +0.2% m/m Revised upwards by 1.1% month-on-month.

German trade data was better than expected as exports fell -1.7% m/m in September, a sharper-than-expected -2.4% m/m. Additionally, imports rose +2.1% month-on-month in September, beating expectations of +0.6% month-on-month.

German industrial production in September fell -2.5% month-on-month, remaining weaker than expected of -1.0% month-on-month.

As expected, the Bank of England (BOE) cut its key interest rate by -25 basis points from 5.00% to 4.75%. BOE Governor Bailey said we can’t cut rates “too fast or too much” and that rates would likely decline “gradually from here.”

Swaps discount the odds of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting at 100% and a -50 basis point rate cut at the same meeting at 17%.

US stock trader

ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) rose more than 6% to lead the rise in chip stocks after the company reported second-quarter revenue of $844 million, above the consensus of $810.9 million US dollars. Additionally, Intel (INTC) is up more than +3% and is among the top performers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Additionally, Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Broadcom (AVGO) gained more than +2%. Finally, Nvidia (NVDA), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +1%.

EPAM Systems (EPAM) rose more than 14% after the company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.17 billion, better than consensus of $1.15 billion, and fourth-quarter revenue forecast revenue of $1.21 billion to $1.22 billion, well above the consensus of $1.15 billion.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up more than +15% to lead the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gainers after the company reported third-quarter total subscribers of 110.5 million, well above the consensus of 109.01 million.

Vistra Corp (VST) rose more than 10% after the company raised its full-year operating adjusted Ebitda forecast to $5.00-5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.55 billion to $5.05 billion .20 billion US dollars.

McKesson (MCK) rose more than 10% after the company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $7.07, above the consensus of $6.88, and its adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 has increased to $32.40-$33.00 from a previous forecast of $31.75-$32.55, which is stronger than consensus of $32.00.

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) rose more than 5% after the company reported second-quarter net bookings of $1.47 billion, above the consensus of $1.44 billion.

Ralph Lauren (RL) is up more than +5% after the company raised its 2025 revenue growth estimate to +3% to +4% from a previous estimate of +2% to +3%, above the consensus of + 2.92%.

Lyft (LYFT) rose more than +27% after the company reported third-quarter gross bookings of $4.11 billion, above the consensus of $4.08 billion, and for the fourth quarter gross bookings of $4.28 billion to $4.35 billion, well above the consensus of $4.23 billion.

Match Group (MTCH) fell more than -17% to lead the S&P 500’s losers after the company reported third-quarter revenue of $895.5 million, below the consensus of 900 .9 million and forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $865 million to $875 million, weaker than the consensus of $905.9 million.

MercadoLibre (MELI) is down more than -14% to lead the Nasdaq 100’s losers after the company reported third-quarter adjusted Ebitda of $714.0 million, well below consensus 927.7 million US dollars.

Corteva (CTVA) fell more than -6% after the company cut its full-year net sales forecast to $17.0 billion to $17.2 billion from a previous forecast of $17.2 billion to $17.5 billion has, which is weaker than the consensus of $17.21 billion.

Rockwell Automation (ROK) fell more than -4% after the company forecast 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $8.60 to $9.80, well below the consensus of $10.57 lies.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Baird downgraded the stock to “underperform” from “neutral” and set a $200 price target.

KeyCorp (KEY) is down more than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral with a $19 price target.

Results reports (November 7th, 2024)

Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD), Airbnb Inc (ABNB), Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM), Arista Networks Inc (ANET), Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON), Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX), Consolidated Edison Inc (ED) , Corpay Inc (CPAY), Duke Energy Corp (DUK), EOG Resources Inc (EOG), EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM), Evergy Inc (EVRG), Expedia Group Inc (EXPE), Fortinet Inc (FTNT), Halliburton Co ( HAL), Hershey Co/The (HSY), Insulet Corp (PODD), Kenvue Inc (KVUE), Mettler-Toledo International Inc (MTD), Moderna Inc (MRNA), Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP), Monster Beverage Corp ( MNST), Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI), News Corp (NWSA), PG&E Corp (PCG), Ralph Lauren Corp (RL), Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK), Solventum Corp (SOLV), Tapestry Inc (TPR), TransDigm Group Inc (TDG), Viatris Inc (VTRS), Vistra Corp (VST), Warner Bros Discovery Inc (WBD).

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At the time of publication, Rich Asplund did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. For more information, please see Barchart’s disclosure policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.