Yesterday began a series of active weather days across Texas. We expect further impacts this weekend and Monday, including heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. After a few quiet days, another upper-level storm system will arrive around Friday.

There were thunderstorms overnight in the Texas Panhandle, eastern New Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall has brought a welcome change after a terribly dry October. This chance of rain will expand into West Texas, the Permian Basin, Northwest Texas and the Big Country this afternoon and evening. A few storms could become more severe later this afternoon and tonight. The most intense storms could produce large hail, damaging winds and even some tornadoes.

We expect the storm to develop into a line or complex of storms that will move northeast into northwest Texas, Texoma and Oklahoma this evening. Additional storms may develop overnight and into Sunday morning across West Texas, the Permian Basin, the Big Country, Northwest Texas and Texoma, with hail, heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and brief tornadoes. Not all storms will produce severe weather, but we expect a good storm drain wash.

The wet weather will continue on Sunday

As we move further into Sunday and Sunday evening, the chance of thunderstorms increases across the Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Texoma, Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas and East Texas. Like today, we expect multiple rounds of storms, many of which will expand into line segments or small clusters. Activity will tend to shift to the east/northeast.

Some storms may be severe and carry the risk of damaging winds, large hail and some tornadoes. Given the relatively chaotic path of the storm, it will be difficult to determine corridors with higher severe weather potential with much lead time. Hopefully we can enjoy a lot of rain without causing too much disruption, but with plenty of wind shear we’ll have to watch the storms for signs of low wind rotation.

Monday could be a weather-heavy day for Texas

Monday could be problematic. A strong cold front will move west to east across much of Texas late Monday morning into Tuesday morning. The cold front will provide “lift” and allow isolated to numerous thunderstorms to develop through Monday afternoon near Interstate 35 from Texoma, North Texas, to Central Texas.

Environmental conditions may be conducive to severe thunderstorms, with the potential for damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. The line of storms will move across the eastern third into the eastern half of Texas Monday afternoon, Monday evening and Tuesday morning before exiting Texas to the east. Current forecasts indicate that much of Tuesday will be characterized by mild weather threats across Texas, with gusty northwest winds and much cooler temperatures.

Calmer weather on election day

Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be less active, but there may be a chance of light showers. Thursday, Friday and Saturday could become active with the arrival of another upper level storm system and cold front. We’ll address the storm threat at the end of the week once we’re done with our current record.

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