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Spurs vs. Mavericks – today’s best NBA prop bets (target Luka Doncic, Chris Paul on Thursday).
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Spurs vs. Mavericks – today’s best NBA prop bets (target Luka Doncic, Chris Paul on Thursday).

The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs begin their 2024-25 regular season on Thursday, and there’s plenty of star power on display in this matchup.

Dallas reached the Finals last season — led by leading scorer Luka Doncic — and added veteran Klay Thompson to an already formidable core in a sign-and-trade.

In San Antonio, reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama is looking to make the jump to All-NBA status – and potentially lead the Spurs to the play-in tournament in the process. The Spurs added veteran guard Chris Paul and veteran forward Harrison Barnes in a couple of offseason moves that should increase the team’s effectiveness this season.

So how should we bet on this matchup when it comes to the prop market? I have three stars that I’m aiming for for Thursday’s competition.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 points (-110)

Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer last season, has a 29.5 points advantage against San Antonio, and I think he’s massively underrated.

Yes, Spurs had a solid defense when Wemby was on the field, but they only finished 21st overall in defensive rating for the 2023-24 season.

Now Doncic has a chance to attack this defense with more offense in the starting lineup with Thompson in the mix.

Maybe this will lead to Luka passing the ball more often, but let’s not forget that he averaged 32.4 and 33.9 points per game over the last two seasons, respectively.

Luka made a career-high 23.6 shots per game and increased his 3-point attempts from 8.2 to 10.6 per game from the 2022-23 season to the 2023-24 season.

If the usage stays the same for Luka – and it should – I think he’s undervalued if this prop is anywhere below 30.5.

Chris Paul OVER 7.5 assists (-130)

Last season with the Golden State Warriors, CP3 averaged 6.8 assists per game, primarily as a substitute (40 of his 58 games were off the bench).

Now he takes on a starting role with Spurs and can rely on an elite lob threat in Wembanyama.

Paul only had two seasons in his career where he averaged less than 7.8 assists per game, and I expect Gregg Popovich will rely on him to lead this team – especially if the Spurs make the playoffs want to achieve.

Don’t be shocked if CP3 hits double-digit assists on Thursday night.

Victor Wembanyama OVER 5.5 steals and blocks (+105)

The favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year honors this season, Wembanyama led the NBA with 3.6 blocks per game in his rookie season.

The Spurs star also averaged 1.2 steals per game, but his numbers increased in the last two months when the Spurs lifted his minutes restriction.

In March and April, Wemby averaged 4.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game and had eight games in which he blocked 5.5 steals (out of 17).

For more money, this prop is worth a try given Wembanyama’s insane size and defensive ability.

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Deweys NBA betting record here (Futures included). You can also follow my daily pieces on BetStamp here.

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