BYU is 1-0 and preparing for its first road game of the season at SMU. The Mustangs opened as double-digit favorites against the Cougars. SP+, a prediction algorithm developed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, backed up its prediction for BYU-SMU. SP+ gives BYU a 24 percent chance of winning with a projected score of 35-24 in favor of the Mustangs.

The SP+ projection was nearly identical to the betting odds. The Cougars started as 11.5-point underdogs and the over/under was set at 55. So the implied final score according to the bookies would be 35-24.

FPI, ESPN’s official prediction algorithm, gives BYU a 21 percent chance of pulling off the upset.

For BYU, the upset victory has to start on defense. The Mustangs will test BYU’s defense. SMU has currently won nine games in a row at home. In those nine games, the Mustangs averaged an astonishing 53.9 points per game.

On the plus side, the Mustangs have never faced a defense the caliber of BYU during that time. These were the defensive efficiency metrics for those nine teams:

Opponents – Points Scored – FEI Defensive Efficiency Ranking

1. Houston Christian – 59 points – Not listed (FCS opponent)
2. Navy – 59 points – 78.
3. North Texas – 45 points – 132.
4. Tulsa – 69 points – 123.
5. Charlotte – 34 points – 100.
6. Prairie View A&M – 69 points – Unlisted (FCS opponent)
7. Louisiana Tech – 38 points – 129.
8. Memphis – 34 points – 99.
9. Houston – 77 points – 107.

The Mustangs haven’t faced a defense ranked in the top 75 in the FEI during this nine-game winning streak. BYU’s defense really struggled at times in 2023. Still, the Cougars ranked 51st in the defensive FEI.