Time flies when you’re having fun. And Nvidia (NVDA 0.80%) Shareholders are having a lot of fun this year. The stock is up over 180%. It could definitely fly even higher.

Nvidia plans to report fiscal 2025 third-quarter results on November 20, just over three weeks away. Should you buy Nvidia shares immediately beforehand?

If history is any guide…

Investors may want to think long and hard about buying Nvidia stock ahead of the Q3 update. The company has an excellent track record and exceeds expectations.

Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University, recently noted that Nvidia has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all but two quarters (both in 2022) over the past five years. If history is anything to go by, the chances of the company delivering better-than-expected earnings next month are pretty good.

Damodaran offered two possible reasons why Nvidia impressively beat analysts’ earnings estimates. One possibility is that the company is able to record revenue and expenses in a way that allows it to exceed Wall Street’s expectations. Another reason is that demand for Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) is growing so quickly that analysts’ forecasts cannot keep up.

I think Damodaran’s second scenario is more convincing. Nvidia may have enough accounting flexibility to handle a drop in profits at times. However, such manipulation would not realistically allow the company to consistently beat expectations in almost every quarter over a five-year period.

But there’s an even better argument for the NYU professor’s second possible reason for Nvidia’s outperformance. The demand for Nvidia’s GPUs is clear has has accelerated faster than Wall Street has predicted in the past because the analysts themselves said so.

Will history repeat itself?

Should investors expect Nvidia to do it again? Based on management’s comments over the past few months, there are some reasons to be optimistic.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said on the second quarter earnings call that demand for Hopper GPUs “will continue to grow in the second half of the year.” She also later noted that Nvidia expects its adjusted gross margin in the third quarter to be about the same level as in the second quarter.

The consensus estimates among the 37 analysts surveyed LSEG expect third-quarter revenue of $32.9 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share. These numbers reflect sequential growth of approximately 9.7% and 8.8%, respectively.

In the second quarter, Nvidia’s revenue increased 15% compared to the previous quarter, with adjusted earnings per share increasing 11%. The company’s growth could slow a bit in the third quarter and still be enough for Nvidia to beat Wall Street estimates. However, Nvidia forecast third-quarter revenue of $32.5 billion, lower than analysts expected. Of course, the company is notorious for disregarding its leadership.

Two things to keep in mind

So does it make sense to buy Nvidia shares before November 20th? Perhaps. However, I think investors should keep two things in mind.

First, earnings increases do not necessarily lead to significant stock gains. Nvidia beat analysts’ estimates with its Q2 results in August, causing its stock price to drop immediately and continue to fall for several days.

Second (and more importantly), whether you buy Nvidia stock before or after the company’s Q3 update probably won’t make much of a difference in your returns in the long run. If you’re a long-term investor and believe that the shift toward accelerated computing and artificial intelligence (AI) are unstoppable trends, any time is probably a good time to buy Nvidia.

With that in mind, I would be remiss not to point out that the big story in Nvidia’s next quarterly update could be more information about customer excitement about the new Blackwell chips. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang previously said demand for Blackwell was “insane.” Perhaps the biggest way the company could exceed expectations in its Q3 update will be its outlook on the new GPU platform. We’ll find out soon.