Republicans are starting to get nervous that their Election Day turnout in battleground states isn’t as high as it needs to be, just days after they expressed confidence that they would achieve the same Election Day margin as in Year 2020. Many had warned that the GOP was “cannibalizing” their voting on Election Day by urging their supporters to vote early and by mail, and it appears such an event has occurred.

Republicans’ election efforts have largely been outsourced to independent expenditure groups close to President Trump. Billionaire Elon Musk founded his America PAC to knock on doors in swing states, and the conservative activist group Turning Point USA is still at the forefront of many Republican election efforts across the country.

Despite the money and time spent on turnout, the GOP appears concerned that its plan isn’t working.

“The turnout is mixed and not what we would like. We need more voters. We cannot allow voter turnout to stagnate. Text everyone you know. Make more noise. We need more,” wrote Turning Point USA President Charlie Kirk, who has been tasked with much of Trump’s voter turnout efforts in critical battleground states.

At this point, Pennsylvania presents a particularly positive picture for Democrats. Record numbers of young people and students are turning out in elections, with Philadelphia’s 27th District – home to the University of Pennsylvania – already reaching 110 percent turnout four years ago. In the city’s 20th District, where Temple University is located, voter turnout in 2020 was 120 percent. Citywide, Philadelphia voters had reached 87 percent of their 2020 turnout, with several hours left until the vote.

A more startling result from Philadelphia may end up being the turnout of Hispanic voters, particularly Puerto Ricans, who may have been offended by comments at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally that the island was “trash.”

In four of the city’s most Hispanic districts – the 16th, 19th, 37th and 43rd districts – voter turnout by early afternoon had exceeded 2020 levels. Tens of thousands of Puerto Rican voters live in these four counties.

In Nevada – a state that Ms. Harris was widely expected to lose until “the oracle” of the state’s politics made a prediction – Democrats made big gains on Election Day after stagnating in the primary and mail-in voting periods. As of Tuesday afternoon, Republican turnout was just 42 percent, despite reaching 50 percent just two years earlier, when they lost a winnable Senate seat and narrowly won the governor’s office.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Democrats represented 30 percent of Election Day voters, while Republicans made up just 37 percent. Four years ago, Democrats accounted for just 22 percent of in-person voting on Election Day when President Biden won the state.

Even Republicans not directly involved in canvassing and voter turnout appear to be panicking as the numbers come out. “Don’t pay any attention to polls. Don’t pay attention to early numbers. Just VOTE,” wrote conservative commentator Ben Shapiro.

It’s certainly not over for Trump and his party. Senator Portman’s former chief economist Brian Riedl warned that turnout numbers and exit polls showed a comfortable lead for Secretary Kerry in 2004 when he was the Democratic nominee, only to miss it just hours later.

“In 2004, Election Day polls and on-the-ground voter turnout showed John Kerry’s voter turnout rising massively toward a historic landslide victory (which caused Bush to plummet to 9% in the prediction markets). It was all wrong and Bush won,” Mr. Riedl writes. “It’s best to ignore the noise on Election Day.”

Democrats, on the other hand, still seemed overjoyed by the increase in voter turnout across the country.

“I think our field work has really been second to none over the last decade, and what we’re seeing right now is more anecdotal, but early in the day turnout is particularly high,” Gov. Shapiro said at a campaign stop Tuesday. “I feel really good.”

Philadelphia Democratic Party Chairman Bob Brady, who served in the U.S. House of Representatives for decades, echoed those sentiments in a brief conversation with reporters. “The turnout is extremely high,” Mr. Brady said. “I’ve been running elections for 50 years and chairing for 40 years, and now it’s the highest we’ve ever seen in this area.”

“The voter turnout is exceptionally high. Anywhere in Michigan. That’s all,” wrote Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. “That’s the tweet.”