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Rafael is strengthening into a major hurricane before hitting Cuba on Wednesday
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Rafael is strengthening into a major hurricane before hitting Cuba on Wednesday

MIAMI — Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen as it swirls across the Caribbean Sea, and forecasters now say the late-night storm is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before it is expected to hit Cuba on Wednesday.

Millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida are keeping an eye on the hurricane as it batters Cuba with devastating hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves along the coast.

HURRICANE RAFAEL TRACKER: FORECAST CONES, SPAGHETTI SLOTS, MAPS, WARNINGS AND MORE

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said rapid strengthening is expected to continue, but Rafael is expected to briefly weaken as it rotates over western Cuba. However, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane strength (74 mph or greater) as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael has lashed parts of the western Caribbean as he travels to Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC said it was concerned that torrential rains could lead to flash floods and mudslides in higher areas of Cuba.

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Tropical storms are expected in the lower and central Florida Keys, beginning later Wednesday and extending into Wednesday night.

Heavy rain is expected across the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly in the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. The NHC said rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected in parts of Cuba, with locally higher amounts of up to 12 inches in higher terrain. An additional 2 to 4 inches could fall over the Cayman Islands.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the lower and central Florida Keys.

Meteorologists are also concerned about the possibility of a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 9 to 14 feet above normal flood levels was possible in areas with onshore winds along Cuba’s southern coast within the hurricane warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast for the Dry Tortugas National Park area, with 1 to 2 feet forecast for the lower Florida Keys.

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Where is Hurricane Rafael?

This graphic shows the status of Hurricane Rafael.
(FOX Weather)


According to the latest report from the NHC, Rafael is located approximately 60 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth and is moving northwest at a speed of 14 miles per hour.

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, making it a top-level Category 2 hurricane. The official forecast is for the hurricane to strengthen with winds of up to 115 miles per hour, making it a Category 3 hurricane.

How are hurricanes rated? THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE EXPLAINED

A hurricane warning remains in effect across western Cuba, including Havana.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower and central Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for central Cuba.

What to do if hurricane or tropical storm watches and warnings are issued for your city?

What is the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to move further northwest over the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On this route, Rafael is expected to move near or just east of the Isle of Youth in the next few hours and make landfall in western Cuba later on Wednesday. Rafael will then surface in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

From then on, computer forecast models disagree about exactly where Rafael is headed next.

“It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael may have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should monitor forecast updates regularly.”

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