The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs look to pick up their first FBS win of the season on Thursday night when they host the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in a Conference USA matchup.

While both teams have struggled, the Bulldogs appear to be the better team and have home-field advantage in this game, which is why I’m picking them for my Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech predictions.

Find out why I like Louisiana Tech getting its first conference win in my free college football picks for Thursday, October 10th.

Prediction and best bet for Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech

My best choice
Louisiana Tech -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

The start of the season was not a good one for either team and neither of them is a contender in Conference USA either. In fact, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee are considered two of the worst teams in the FBS rankings. But even if you look at the weakest teams in the country, you can see areas of difference between them.

In this matchup, the biggest difference between these two teams is defensively. Both teams have decent passing numbers – helped by the fact that they’re usually behind, but also look solid in terms of per-play metrics – but only Louisiana Tech has done anything to prevent their opponents from passing the ball move.

The Bulldogs held opponents to just 4.5 yards per play this year, making them one of the top 25 teams in the country. Sure, these numbers came against relatively weak competition, but on average these teams could be better than Middle Tennessee. Louisiana Tech is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush and has also been solid passing, holding opponents to an above-average 6.2 yards per attempt.

In contrast, Middle Tennessee was one of the worst defensive teams in the country, even ignoring the overall mediocre competition it faced. The Blue Raiders rank 134th out of 134 FBS teams in passing yardage allowed (319.0 yards per game), 133rd in completion percentage against and 132nd in opposing quarterback rating (171.4) . This is a team that gets shredded through the air — and that’s the one area where Louisiana Tech’s offense has had limited success this season.

Middle Tennessee barely got past the FCS Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles earlier this season, scoring 25 points in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders have not scored more than 21 points against any FBS opponent — while Louisiana Tech has appeared in every game this year, even against a Power 4 opponent in the North Carolina State Wolfpack. The Bulldogs should be a touchdown favorite on a neutral field and easily cover at home.

Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech – Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Louisiana Tech -4.5

Under 49

Tru Edwards gets more than 50 yards

Louisiana Tech should have the best of this matchup between two struggling teams, and my effort in the same game reflects that. Not only am I taking Louisiana Tech to cover the spread, but I’m also taking the under at 49 points. Neither team has scored more than 25 points in a single game against an FBS opponent this year, and I’m willing to bet that the Bulldogs will at least have a chance to knock off Middle Tennessee again on Thursday night.

As far as Louisiana Tech’s offensive production goes, I like wide receiver Tru Edwards in this matchup. Edwards had 208 yards in his first three games, including a 148-yard burst against North Carolina State.

If the Bulldogs want to score against the Blue Raiders — who were among the worst teams in the country at pass stopping with a 72.6% completion rate and 9.1 yards per attempt — Edwards will be the focal point of that attack.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech odds

Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech live odds

Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech opening odds

• Distribution between Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech: Louisiana Tech -4.5 (-110)
• Moneyline Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech: Middle Tennessee +165, Louisiana Tech -200
• Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech Over/Under: 48.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech spread and over/under analysis

• Louisiana Tech is 2-2 against the spread this season, while Middle Tennessee is 1-4 ATS on the year.
• The Blue Raiders are 0-4 against FBS opponents in 2024, losing every game by at least 17 points.
• The Over holds a 3-2 edge in Middle Tennessee games this season. The Unders have a 3-1 advantage when the Bulldogs play.
• Louisiana Tech plays at an average overall pace of 40.5 ppg. The Blue Raiders are averaging 55 ppg overall this season.

Things to know about the Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech betting trend

Louisiana Tech is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Middle Tennessee. Find more college football betting trends for Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech.

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