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Allan Lichtman, the American political historian considered the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions,” has officially declared that Kamala Harris will win this year’s race for the White House.

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in a video for The New York Times on Thursday.

“At least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome depends on you, so go vote.”

The professor, who has been teaching at the American University in Washington DC since 1973, has correctly predicted the winner in nine of the ten US presidential elections over the past 40 years. He did not predict that George W. Bush would narrowly beat Al Gore in 2000, and he also wrongly did not believe that Donald Trump would win the majority of votes in 2016. But otherwise he was infallible.

Lichtman’s method of predicting the race so precisely is known as “The Key to the White House,” a system he developed in 1981 with Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

They use their method to examine the state of the country and the incumbent party in an election year to determine whether their candidate will come out on top again in November or whether there is enough dissatisfaction among voters to allow a competitor to overtake them.

Lichtman’s approach takes into account 13 factors, ranging from the standing of the president’s party in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any scandals, social unrest or foreign policy disasters during their terms in office and the charisma of the two candidates in comparison to determine the winner, assigning each category a label “true” or “false.”

If the current government achieves six or more “real” ratings, its candidate is likely to win; if it achieves fewer ratings, its challenger is likely to emerge victorious.

In his explanatory video on NYTThe professor said that eight of the 13 keys currently provide “true” answers, suggesting a triumph for Harris and another four years in government for the Democrats.

Only three of the keys are definitely “wrong,” but two more could turn that value around, he said. And even if that were the case, five would still not be enough to give the Republicans a victory.

“Foreign policy is a delicate matter and this could be the key to success,” Lichtman said.

“The Biden administration is deeply involved in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian catastrophe with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys were set to ‘false,’ that would mean there would only be five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to retake the White House.”

Speaking to Fox 5 Washington DC, Professor Lichtman further explained that Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw after his disastrous performance in the debate against Trump in late June was a turning point for the 2024 race.

“The Democrats have finally shown backbone, gotten smart and rallied behind Harris,” he said.

“That avoided losing the key to party competition. They’ve already lost one key, the key to incumbency, but losing both is an almost fatal combination. So that made a big difference.

“And one more thing: I think Harris has had a positive impact in some other key areas. I think she contributed to the failure of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign because voters no longer have to choose between two old white men. I hate to say that, as I am an old white man myself!

“And second, I think it helped to blunt the major protests because Biden was no longer at the forefront as a policymaker.”

When asked if anything could change Trump’s fate, the professor replied: “Since the (American) Civil War, nothing in the last 30 days has changed his decision… Does that mean it’s impossible? I’m not so arrogant as to say, you know, nothing can be changed in history.”

According to recent national opinion polls, Harris is four percentage points ahead of Trump (43 percent) with 47 percent of the vote. However, the candidates are tied in three crucial swing states: Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia.

In two other potentially decisive swing states – Michigan and Wisconsin – the Democrat is now in the lead, while in Arizona the Republican ex-president is ahead.