Which path will the 2024 election take?

The latest national poll from Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA shows a neck-and-neck race between US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump, with Harris narrowly ahead Among likely voters, the lead is 49% to 47%. Additionally, more voters (46%) believe Harris best understands the challenges facing the average American, compared to 44% for Trump.

The House race reflects a similar divide, with 46% of voters favoring Democratic candidates and 46% supporting Republicans among likely voters. Among men, Republicans lead 48% to 45%, while Democrats lead among women 47% to 44%.

“This race continues to be highly competitive,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “Voter turnout or delayed voter movement could make the difference.”

Further results of the nationwide survey:

• 31% of voters believe Elon Musk’s social media posts are focused on improving society, while 50% believe they are more about Musk himself.
• Satisfaction with US democracy continues to be divided along party lines. Among Democrats, 54% are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the state of democracy and 47% of Republicans are dissatisfied.
• 65% of voters say they are very or somewhat satisfied with their current life situation.

Florida voters influence the presidential race, amendments and voting preferences

• In Florida, Trump leads Harris 53% to 44% among likely voters in the presidential election. In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican Rick Scott leads Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell with 50% of voter support, Mucarsel-Powell’s 46% and 3% of voters are undecided.
• Amendment 3, which proposes legalizing marijuana for adults 21 and older, has strong support: 60% of voters were in favor, 34% were against and 6% were undecided. There must be a 60% approval rating on election day to be approved.
• Amendment 4, which aims to ensure the right to abortion until the fetus is viable or when necessary for the health of the patient, also receives strong support with 58%, 32% against and 10% undecided.
• Florida voters prefer early in-person voting: 51% choose that option, while just 21% choose absentee voting and just 18% plan to vote on Election Day.

methodology

This report includes analysis from two surveys conducted in October, each focused on registered voters ages 18 and older. The first poll was conducted nationally from October 20 to 27 among 937 voters in the U.S., while the second poll from October 19 to 27 involved 913 voters residing in Florida. Both surveys were administered via text messaging and an online panel, allowing participants to respond in either English or Spanish. Both surveys were intended to represent their respective voter groups and weighted gender, race, education and previous voting behavior, with party ID determined by respondent affiliation. Voting probability was assessed and only those most likely to vote were added to the Likely Voter screen. Although neither survey could assign an exact margin of error due to the online component, each sample typically has a margin of error of ±3.2% at a 95% confidence level, with margins higher for subsamples. Complete methods can be found at faupolling.com/about. The full report with crosstabs is available upon request. A dashboard for tracking election polls can be found here.

-FAU-