With just three days until the election, former President Donald Trump’s campaign remains uncertain about its prospects in North Carolina, a Sun Belt state he has claimed in two consecutive presidential elections.

When asked why, a Trump campaign official responded bluntly.

“If there’s one state that might catch your eye, it’s North Carolina,” the official said.

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At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team, which less than two weeks ago feared the Tar Heel State was “slipping away a little bit,” now sees “a lot in play,” a senior campaign official said.

Their dueling views were on display as both campaigns landed in North Carolina, with the candidates rallying voters in a margin of error contest that raises the stakes in every battleground. Most recently, Trump veered off course in the final days of the campaign, focusing on states like Virginia and New Mexico and saying he could expand his map.

Still, he plans to return to North Carolina every day until the election.

On Saturday, Trump held rallies in Greensboro and Gastonia, in between visiting Virginia, while Harris landed in Charlotte for a large rally. Trump returns to Kinston on Sunday and then will hold a rally in Raleigh on Monday.

While Harris campaign aides chastised Trump on social media for taking a defensive stance in a state that hasn’t been in crisis since 2008, Trump’s campaign cast the repeated visits to North Carolina as an aggressive, all-base strategy be covered.

“Now the fate of our nation is in your hands,” Trump said at his rally in Gastonia on Saturday. “If we win this state, we will win the entire game.”

Like many other battlegrounds, North Carolina’s polling averages show the state within the margin of error, giving Trump a slight lead.

The political dynamics have shifted sharply in the final months of the race after Hurricane Helene hit the western part of the state, destroying entire cities and displacing scores of people, especially in rural areas. A deluge of misinformation propagated by Trump — even as it was debunked by members of his own party — left Democrats fearing the narrative was too much to overcome.

But Harris remains within striking distance. If she succeeds in claiming the state, she could potentially block Trump’s path to victory. But she would still have to win Pennsylvania, a state that has polled more than any other.

If Harris loses Pennsylvania but retains the other blue wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan and somehow wins North Carolina, that still wouldn’t be enough to win the necessary 270 Electoral College votes.

She would also need electoral votes from another state that President Joe Biden won in 2020, such as Nevada. So far, Republicans are demonstrating strength compared to Democrats in early voter turnout in the Silver State, with a large group of independent voters also turning out. It is unclear how these voters will behave, and Election Day turnout remains unknown, as does party-line voting.

A longtime Republican strategist involved in turnout efforts in North Carolina who was not authorized to speak publicly said Trump should feel encouraged by the strength of his party’s early turnout.

“Prior to this election, Republicans have never had a cumulative advantage in early voting,” the person said. “However, this is not just a vote shift. We studied that. Republicans in North Carolina have a lower rate of cannibalization,” he added, referring to the share of high-propensity voters who simply vote early.

Republicans’ surge in early voting this election can be attributed at least in part to the party’s strong early voting message. Data from Friday shows Republicans leading Democrats in North Carolina. But as in Nevada, independent voters made up a large portion of the early voter electorate, and how they divide is largely unknown.

The Democrats interpret the first numbers completely differently.

“The Republicans are definitely doing a little better than the Democrats. But … I read that early voting is 55% women, and every single poll shows women supporting Democrats and the largest gender gap in North Carolina history,” said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.

Jackson added that suburban voters’ turnout was two percentage points higher than their registration share and that in every competitive election since the fall of Roe v. Wade, Democrats have performed better in polls with women, independent voters, suburban voters and Republican women.

“That’s why I’m an optimist about this election,” Jackson said. “I think the fact that Trump is visiting North Carolina more than any other state in the last few days shows that they see the same thing as I do in the early voter numbers, and they are concerned.”

North Carolina Democrats have also expressed confidence that they have the upper hand on the ground. Voter registration numbers rose as Harris joined the race, and her rallies in the state drew large crowds, including Saturday’s, which drew about 10,000 people, the campaign said. Republicans have pointed to lower black turnout as a warning sign for Democrats in the state, but party strategists say it has remained essentially at pre-Obama levels, which is what they had expected.

Democrats also flooded Republicans overall with advertising in the state, spending $66.2 million to $42.4 million from Oct. 1 to Nov. 2. But Republicans have closed that loophole. A huge lead in ad spending from October 1 to 26 ($54 million for Democrats and nearly $29 million for Republicans) disappeared last week as Republicans narrowly edged Democrats by 13.7 to surpassed $12.3 million, all according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm.

On Saturday in Charlotte, Harris urged voters to go to the polls and turn the page against Trump, whom she called divisive.

“North Carolina, I am here to ask for your vote. … I promise to seek common ground and common-sense solutions to the challenges you face,” the vice president said. “I promise you to listen to experts and listen to people who disagree with me. Because unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy.”