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    • NHC tracks 3 systems, 2 depressions possible
    Iowa

    NHC tracks 3 systems, 2 depressions possible

    Eira Gwyneth Posted on

    About two-thirds of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs between August 20 and October 10.

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    The first week of September has begun and with it more activity in the tropics, especially tropical waves with greater potential for development.

    The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves. Two of them have a 40 percent chance of developing in the next seven days – including one in the Caribbean – and could develop into tropical depressions later this week or over the weekend.

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    The third tropical wave, which first appeared on the NHC’s tropical map in the central Atlantic at 8 a.m., is expected to encounter conditions that make its development unfavorable later this week.

    The locations of the tropical waves that the Hurricane Center has highlighted on its tropical map are located at:

    • Over the Eastern Caribbean
    • In the far east of the Atlantic.
    • In the central Atlantic

    Historically, about two-thirds of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs between August 20 and October 10, says Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasting in the Atlantic basin.

    Labor Day 2024 unusual for the tropics

    AccuWeather meteorologists said Labor Day weekend is typically one of the busiest times in the tropics. The most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October, with the peak occurring on Sept. 10.

    According to AccuWeather, this year was the first time in 27 years that no named tropical storm formed in the Atlantic basin between August 21 and September 2.

    Expect an increase in tropical activity

    The wind shear that helped prevent tropical waves from forming is expected to subside by mid-September.

    In addition to the transition to La Niña conditions and the reduction in Saharan dust levels, meteorologists expect an increase in tropical activity this month.

    The next named storm of the season will be Francine.

    Here is the latest update from the NHC as of September 3, 8:00 a.m.:

    What is out there and how likely is it to gain momentum?

    Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave produces scattered showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and parts of the central Caribbean Sea.

    This system is forecast to move westward, and a tropical depression could form when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week or over the weekend.

    • Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
    • Probability of occurrence within seven days: medium, 40 percent.

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the easternmost Atlantic Ocean produces scattered showers and thunderstorms.

    Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive to development, and a tropical depression may form later this week as the disturbance slowly moves west-northwest or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

    This system could cause locally heavy rains and gusty winds in parts of Cape Verde within one to two days.

    • Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
    • Probability of occurrence within seven days: medium, 40 percent.

    Central Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is causing irregular showers and thunderstorms.

    As the system moves west-northwestward, slow development is possible over the next few days.

    However, by the end of the week, environmental conditions are likely to become unfavorable for further development.

    • Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
    • Probability of occurrence within 7 days: low, 10 percent.

    Tracking tropical waves? Here are the longitude and latitude of your location

    • Eastern Atlantic: A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean has its axis at 24W from 04N over the eastern Cape Verde Islands. It is moving westward at about 17 miles per hour.
    • Central Atlantic: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has its axis at 40W from 04N to 20N. It is moving westward at 17 to 23 miles per hour.
    • Eastern Caribbean: A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is moving inland into Venezuela at 68W, south of 20N. It is moving westward at about 23 mph. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 14N to 18N between 66W and 70W.
      • As the system moves into the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week and over the weekend, environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive to development. A tropical depression could form during this time.

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    The hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – that is, a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

    The colors indicate how likely the development of a system could be: yellow stands for a low probability, orange for a medium probability and red for a high probability.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

    “If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet developed into a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    Who is likely to be affected?

    The National Hurricane Center said the tropical wave could cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the Bay of Campeche over the weekend, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

    It’s too early to say if it will impact Florida or the U.S., but AccuWeather meteorologists warned that the near-record water temperatures bring with them the potential for rapid intensification of any named storm that forms. Gulf residents should keep a close eye on the system.

    It is still too early to judge whether the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic will have an impact on Florida.

    ➤ Forecast of excessive precipitation

    Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and stay prepared. This advice is especially important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

    Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida

    When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

    When is the peak of hurricane season?

    The peak of the season is September 10, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

    National Hurricane Center map: What are meteorologists paying attention to now?

    Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that have passed near your city

    Heavy rainfall forecast

    What happens next?

    We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website’s app to make sure you’re always up to date with the news. And look out for our special subscription offers here.

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    Eira Gwyneth
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