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NFL Week 7 Fantasy Football Roster Decisions: David Montgomery, George Pickens, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
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NFL Week 7 Fantasy Football Roster Decisions: David Montgomery, George Pickens, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Fantasy football managers think about almost everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.

Take a deep breath. It’s fantasy football. Make practical decisions about lineups, trades, and food for the tailgating party and everything will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn’t believe what fantasy managers overthink. Well, you are (presumably) a fantasy manager. Okay, maybe you would.

The Lions, who just put up 47 points against the embarrassed Cowboys, have a pair of great running backs. Gibbs is the one everyone coveted in early fantasy drafts. The former Alabama player is 22 years old and coming off a rookie season with nearly 1,300 scrimmage yards, 11 touchdowns and 52 receptions. Montgomery had his own signature season with 13 TD runs in his first season after leaving the Bears, but people just assumed that Gibbs was the only one with a bright future. Montgomery went four or five rounds later in average ESPN drafts.

Fast forward to this week and not only did Montgomery score 7.3 more PPR points – admittedly that’s not a lot – but he also outscored Gibbs 85-80. Is this relevant information? Well, Gibbs is generally on the roster and Montgomery isn’t at 94.2%, but in serious leagues every player is an obvious starter. But some view Montgomery, who has scored a rushing touchdown in every game so far, as someone who is unable to continue his success, while Gibbs is the one people seem to be targeting in trades. This may not be correct.

Gibbs caught three passes against Dallas, his first catches since Week 2, and therein lies the reason why their value is much closer than most assumed. Gibbs is below his rookie receiving and targeting numbers, while Montgomery is on pace to post even better rushing numbers than last season. It also seems relevant that Montgomery and the Lions recently committed to a lucrative two-year contract extension. It’s not that Gibbs is a huge disappointment, but Montgomery continues to improve at 27 years old. We should focus more on him, and perhaps that will soon be reflected in the ESPN Fantasy rankings. This week I’m putting them in order.

There are two sets of running back team tandems, with each player ranked among the top 20 PPR RB scorers (the others being the Seahawks RBs), and it makes sense that each of these Lions would end up as an RB1- option could end. While many of us wonder if the Ravens’ incredible Derrick Henry can score a touchdown in every game, why can’t Montgomery do the same? The Rams’ Kyren Williams also has a 5-5 record when it comes to scoring touchdowns. It’s time we look at Montgomery in a similar way to Gibbs, both as borderline RB1s.

Another note from the Lions: Last season, Jared Goff attempted 605 passes, and nearly a third (31%) of those went to Gibbs and rookie TE Sam LaPorta. This season, Goff is attempting significantly fewer passes per game (from 35.5 to 29.8) and is throwing far more to wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, as they account for 47% of the total. We shouldn’t assume that Gibbs — or the physically challenged LaPorta (16th at TE in PPR rating) — will suddenly see larger receiving roles.

Expect a better performance from George Pickens

The Steelers were always going to turn to conventional QB Russell Wilson at some point, having promised him the opportunity months ago. Good for Justin Fields. He kind of has revitalized his career because of his ability to avoid turnovers (only two in six games, who knows?), but then again, who are we kidding? Fields provided fantasy value with his legs, which surprised no one. He scored five touchdowns in the last four games. However, he hasn’t been a good quarterback, completing less than 60% of his passes in the last two games. This crime could get him nowhere. Just trade Fields to the Raiders and let him run around for 25 fantasy points per game please. Fields highlights a major difference between reality and fantasy.

Wilson probably won’t be a good – or should we say consistently good – fantasy quarterback or as valuable as Fields because he doesn’t use his legs to put up points, but let’s not be so pessimistic about this move either. The Steelers have won four of six games because they are well coached, play great defense and their quarterback hasn’t hurt them. Stop giving Fields so much credit. Wilson is the better, far more accurate quarterback, and Pickens is arguably the quintessential buy-low WR in fantasy. He ranks third among all WRs in team target percentage (28.9% compared to 21.9% last season when Diontae Johnson was there), but his QB didn’t give him much of a chance. That’s changing now.

Pickens caught 1,140 yards worth of passes (with five touchdowns) last season from the future Hall of Fame crew of Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky. Again, Wilson is an obvious upgrade. While this isn’t the Wilson of his Super Bowl salad days, he still throws an accurate pass deep, and while the Steelers should remain a run-first team, they will allow Wilson to get to the edge and to throw downfield. There will be interceptions and sacks and everyone will call for Fields again, but this is no contest. Wilson gives the Steelers offense a better chance. Even at 35 years old, he still has more potential as a quarterback. This is a good move for the Steelers and their top WR.

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What fantasy value does Tyreek Hill have heading into Week 7?

Field Yates breaks down Tyreek Hill’s fantasy value for Week 7 with QB Tua Tagovailoa out due to injury.

The Dolphins won’t announce anything definitive about QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) any time soon, but that isn’t stopping overzealous fantasy managers from assuming he returns in October to salvage the value of sputtering WRs Hill and Waddle. This seems rather optimistic and, if you will, a dangerous, desperate move. A healthy Tagovailoa is generally productive – although he’s overrated for individual fantasy purposes, as he averaged just 15.9 points last season, worse than 20 QBs – and fun to watch, but his situation is part of a larger one topic. His health is compromised and the Dolphins are under pressure to handle it carefully.

Waddle is the only WR selected in the top 30 in ESPN ADP to fall below 85% of the roster, and frankly more guys should walk away. He’s not Hill. Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards last season despite ranking just ninth in attempts. This season, the Dolphins rank 26th in passing yards, with Tyler Huntley averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa averaged 8.3 YPA last season and 8.9 the year before. Waddle is irrelevant in fantasy in this offense and Hill is close. We’d like to see a healthy Tagovailoa return to action (maybe in November?), but fantasy managers shouldn’t get their hopes up on that.

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