The Liberty Flames and the New Mexico State Aggies face off in college football action on Saturday at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Here is a New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction. We will look at it from a betting perspective and make the best pick for New Mexico State vs. Liberty.

Liberty Flames Betting Preview

The Flames are coming off a (mostly) successful 2023 season. Liberty finished 13-1 overall and a perfect 8-0 record in C-USA play. The Flames finished first in the standings and beat New Mexico State 49-35 in the conference championship. However, Liberty was defeated 45-6 by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Flames played Campbell in their first game of the 2024 season. In that game, Liberty scored points in every quarter (and also gave up points in every quarter) and won 41-24. Quarterback Kaidon Salter had 242 yards and two touchdowns, while Quinton Cooley led the charge with 110 yards and a score on 16 carries.

Betting preview for the New Mexico State Aggies

On the Aggies side, they went 10-5 overall and 7-1 in the conference last year, finishing second in the standings. After losing the championship game, New Mexico State lost to Fresno State 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl.

In Saturday’s game against Southeast Missouri State, the Aggies trailed by three points in the final quarter but won 23-16. Parker Awad threw for just 37 yards and one pick. Seth McGowan did most of the offensive work with 87 rushing yards and two touchdowns. New Mexico State will then play against Fresno State and Sam Houston.

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• New Mexico State has won each of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP ranked teams.
• New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP ranked teams.
• Liberty has failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
• New Mexico State has won the first half in eight of its last 10 home games against conference opponents.

Why the Liberty Flames will win

• Liberty has won each of its last 14 games against non-AP ranked teams.
• New Mexico State has lost 16 of its last 17 September games as an underdog.
• Liberty has covered the spread in six of its last seven games in September.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in its last three games.
• Liberty has won the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.

Facts about the total score

• Each of New Mexico State’s last nine games as an underdog on home soil has been UNDER the total point limit.
• Seven of Liberty’s last eight games against non-AP ranked teams have been OVER the total.

Facts about the game/league

• New Mexico State ranks first among FBS teams in second-quarter winning percentage (1.000) this season.
• New Mexico State ranks first among FBS teams in fourth-quarter win percentage (1.000) this season.
• Liberty ranks first among FBS teams in first-quarter winning percentage (1.000) this season.
• Liberty ranks first among FBS teams in second-quarter winning percentage (1.000) this season.

Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Liberty

I would choose New Mexico State here. But you could also recommend Liberty. Admittedly, the Flames were not up against a particularly strong team in their opening game with Campbell, but they did their job (for the most part). Liberty had a total of 533 yards (279 rushing yards) with 28 first downs and a 9 of 14 third down rate. The 11 penalties were a glaring blemish on an otherwise pretty good performance.

As for New Mexico State, they won a strange game against SEMO by just 60 passing yards and 3.8 yards per play. The Aggies went a solid 10-of-19 on third downs and held the RedHawks to just 5-of-16 on the other side. This second game should be a pretty interesting matchup, and if the Aggies play well, I think they’ll cover what looks like a generous line.