MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) – We’re giving you the first warning of a brand new development opportunity off the Carolina coast. Meanwhile, Francine will have a major impact on Louisiana when it makes landfall today.

THE COAST OF CAROLINA

The National Hurricane Center is now highlighting an area off the Carolinas coast. In a few days, a non-tropical low pressure system could form along a remaining frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast. After that, subtropical or tropical development is possible early next week as the system meanders across the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward. The probability of such a development is currently 20%.

There is still a lot of uncertainty about where this system will go, but the models continue to see these development opportunities. This is something we will be keeping an eye on over the weekend and into early next week.

FRANCINE

There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi; a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas.

As of 8 a.m., the center of Hurricane Francine was located near 27.5 degrees north and 93.3 degrees west. Francine is moving northeast at about 12 mph. A faster northeasterly motion is expected today, and Francine is expected to make landfall within the Louisiana warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward over Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday evening.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds near 90 mph with stronger gusts. Further strengthening is possible this morning. Francine is expected to weaken rapidly after moving inland. Hurricane-force winds will extend up to 40 miles out from the center and tropical storm-force winds will extend up to 115 miles out. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb. An oil platform near the center recently reported a pressure of 977.7 mb.

A storm surge warning is in effect for Sabine Pass, Texas, to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle. A hurricane warning is in effect for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including the New Orleans metropolitan area.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight.

Francine is expected to bring rainfall of 4 to 8 inches through Thursday night, with local amounts of up to 12 inches in southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. These rains could cause significant flash flooding and urban flooding.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the high tide causes normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising waters moving inland from the shore. If the highest tide occurs at the time of the high tide, water could reach the following elevations above the ground anywhere in the areas indicated… Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 feet Vermilion Bay…5-10 feet Port Fourchon, LA to mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 feet Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS…4-6 feet Lake Pontchartrain…4-6 feet Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…3-5 feet Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 feet Lake Maurepas…3-5 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and east of the landfall location where the high tide will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Storm surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the storm surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surges are not expected to pose a threat to risk reduction system levees, but overtopping of local levees may occur. For information specific to your area, consult your local weather service products.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and east of the landfall location, where the storm surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Storm surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the storm surge and the tidal cycle and can vary widely over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to risk mitigation system levees, but overtopping of local levees may occur. For information specific to your area, consult your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office products.

A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight in parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Waves generated by Francine will impact much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult your local weather service products.

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic

Showers and thunderstorms show signs of the formation of a tropical wave located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward into the central tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. The probability of development is 90%.

Central Tropical Atlantic

An elongated low pressure system over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to support light development over the next day or two as the system moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic at 5 to 10 mph. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of ​​stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, which will likely terminate its development. The probability of development is 30%.

East of the Leeward Islands

A small but well-defined low pressure system several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing intermittent showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit further development over the next few days before environmental conditions become even more unfavorable through the weekend as the system slowly moves west-northwestward. The probability of development is currently at 10%.

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