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NBA overreactions early in the season: Thunder’s great defense, Bucks’ panic and more
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NBA overreactions early in the season: Thunder’s great defense, Bucks’ panic and more

It’s still early enough in the NBA season that any realization is an overreaction – so let’s overreact.

It’s time to make ten big announcements about what we’ve seen so far.

Part II of this story will be published on Friday. Here is Part I.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best defense in the NBA

This is not a regular defense. It’s a fortress. It’s a calculated swarm of guards, a group dedicated to keeping dribblers off the court – and it’s not even fully healthy.

The Thunder are allowing just 93.8 points per 100 possessions in their 7-0 start, more than eight more per 100 than the second-place Golden State Warriors.

No team has reached double-digit defensive ratings in a single season since the 67-win San Antonio Spurs nine years ago. The streak won’t end this season. Scoring is too common around the league, and a look at the numbers shows that Oklahoma City has benefited from chance. And yet, because of this team’s versatility, it’s difficult to imagine anyone else surpassing them.

Need to play big? The Thunder can do it with their starting five — and they can grow even more when 7-foot-1 Isaiah Hartenstein returns from injury. With Hartenstein out, coach Mark Daigneault has also been downsized, which isn’t a problem given the power on the perimeter.

The Thunder have six defensemen on the wing who are better than just good: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso. They don’t employ weaklings.

The way to the basket is difficult. They’re allowing just 56 percent shooting at the rim, best in the NBA, and that’s not just because the outstanding Chet Holmgren is even better defensively in his second pro season. If a dribbler is lucky enough to arrive upfield, he often has a lack of balance.

The thunderers are insects. They keep the basketball away from their opponents’ best playmakers and, not for nothing, cause the most turnovers in the league.

Watch as they squeeze the ball out of James Harden’s hands with a seamless transition between Dort and Wiggins, then prey on Derrick Jones Jr., a less comfortable ballhandler, whenever he needs to make a play:

The numbers will not remain so extreme. Enemies shoot better from depth. According to Second Spectrum, they made just 27 percent of their 3-pointers from the break against OKC, the lowest rate in the league, and 30 percent of their wide-open 3-pointers, the second-lowest in the league. Increasing these percentages will make a difference. Oklahoma City allows a lot of deep balls, not because it doesn’t value the 3-pointer, but because it doesn’t let anyone get to the basket. The defense has to make shots somewhere.

And yet, not all open threes are the same, even if they are all open by definition.

The hallmark of the Thunder defense so far is nothing Oklahoma City does; It’s the way his attacks look. Fighting through a 24-second possession in OKC is exhausting. Letting loose a hasty jumper at the end of a chaotic possession is not the same as releasing a smooth jumper that doesn’t require much resistance to produce.

The thunder will grind you to dust.

Their opponents have only 7 of 49 shots made with four or fewer seconds left on the shot clock. Give them the matchup they want, let them set you up, and allow them to push you deep into possession, and you’re in trouble.

If Bilal Coulibaly can go to the basket, send him there

Let Coulibaly come at you without consideration. After all, this kind of aggression was not expected.

That wasn’t expected when Coulibaly entered the NBA a season ago and began his professional career without much scoring opportunity. He improved over the course of his first year, but what he did in the Washington Wizards’ first six games is new.

After a summer of strength gains and developing a better understanding of driving angles, Coulibaly is attacking the rim like never before – and it’s working.

He flies in the other direction in transition. He manages to outwit stronger defenders, a feat he rarely achieved last season. Defenders could get around the rookie version of Coulibaly. Check out this game from early 2023 to 2024, when he’s the last player on the court who understands where he’s turning:

Now look at this recent game and see him rebounding off of Jaylen Brown, a strong on-ball defender, as if Brown wasn’t even there.

The Wizards are moving Coulibaly more than before. He winds his elbow around the screen and throttles from there to the basket. The design is intended for the 2023 No. 7 pick to add pizzazz to the paint. He soaks up contact and gets through defenders in a way he didn’t as a rookie.

He averages 2.3 free throws on 8.7 drives per game. Last season he averaged just 0.5 free throws on 3.7 drives. The scoring went from 8.4 points per night to 17.7.

The Wizards want to finish at the bottom (or top, depending on your perspective) of the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, but they also want to develop the young guys along the way. Giving Coulibaly more responsibility is part of the mission. So far the returns have been encouraging.

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The Bucks are in trouble

We’ve all heard the guesses, the comments about how teams will circle Milwaukee for Giannis Antetokounmpo if this under-pressure performance continues, the retroactive questions about the Damian Lillard transfer or the hiring of Doc Rivers. But so much of what’s hurting the 1-6 Bucks has nothing to do with the flashy names or even the injury to Khris Middleton, without whom they couldn’t make the playoffs.

The same seemingly avoidable no-nos that plagued the Bucks all last season are popping up again.

They are not physically active, do not make particularly strenuous plays and are unable to get back on defense The athlete‘s Eric Nehm recently discussed this in detail. According to Cleaning the Class, Milwaukee gives up 1.44 points per transition play, which is the second-worst rate in the NBA. All too often, the Bucks simply lack space.

Let’s take one piece, the viral Ja Morant Butt praise, as an example.

The passing is exceptional, as is the hustle, but it’s not like Morant needs to break down the defense. An alley had already opened out. Audience members jumping out of their seats with excitement expended more physical energy than he did. This highlight was too easy.

Look at the passing lane, so unobstructed a man from behind can throw an alley-oop. Players worry that their release points will drop too low on jump shots. Imagine how blockable these jumpers would be if they were a foot off the ground. That’s what Morant is doing here. And yet you forget about the possibility of a defender trying to take the basketball away from him; There’s not a hand in sight.

Check out the cutting lane, which is so open that Santi Aldama can waltz unhindered to the ring and fire off an untouched lob.

The Bucks have problems, and they’re not just talent-related.

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RJ Barrett can pass

Comments about Barrett early in the season have become a theme throughout his first six NBA seasons. He’s streaky. They don’t always last.

But after the Toronto Raptors signed him last season, he quietly made a leap so big that if he had played the 65 games to qualify, he would have been in the running for Most Improved Player honors can. Toronto made him more of a cutter and transition fanatic. But now, with their roster short due to injuries, the Raptors have gone to Barrett to back him up.

He does it like never before.

Yes, Barrett only played five games this season, but he had never played five games like this.

He already has 39 assists, 7.8 per game. Up until that point, he had never had nearly that many assists any Five-game stretch. Until November — yes, the month that began less than a week ago — he had never reached double-digit assists in a game in his career. Now he has done it in two of his last three games.

Barrett has never run the pick-and-roll as much, a trend that hurt both Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes. However, the increase in passing isn’t just due to him handling the ball more. He reads the defense, notices where it rotates, and then beats his teammates. He and Gradey Dick have made music together more than once.

Barrett doesn’t even have to look at his sharp-shooting teammate to hit him in the corner on the following play. As soon as he strolled around a screen, he noticed that Dick’s defender, Malik Monk, had slipped into the lane. He turned and hurled the assist across the field as if it were instinct.

It’s been consistent success for Barrett on plays like this.

He never made passes like that until the start of last season, when he was with the New York Knicks. Then they appeared every now and then, although not regularly enough.

But after a few weeks, Barrett appears to be an improved passer. The wonder will be how this trend continues as the Raptors, waiting for Quickley and Barnes to return, get healthier and the ball stops ending up in Barrett’s hands as often.

Jay Huff!

Maybe that’s an underreaction. Huff probably deserves his name in all caps.

The Memphis Grizzlies reportedly had a center problem and entered the season with a rookie as one of their conventional bigs and a long-time G League player as the other. Unfortunately, no one told Huff.

A guy two years removed from winning the G League Defensive Player of the Year award can’t miss a shot. If he touches it from outside the 3-point arc, it flies. Huff is 15 of 28 from deep and scored 20 points in 14 minutes on Saturday. Zach Edey, the mammoth who started ahead of Huff, also scores in droves, massacring smaller defenders with an unblockable hook shot and even injuring opponents far from the field. On Monday, he hit a layup against the Brooklyn Nets and then jogged back the other way for a 3-pointer.

Combined, Huff and Edey average 21 points in 35.1 minutes and share the middle spot.

Either Huff has combined the best qualities of Stephen Curry and Ray Allen, or he’s simply off to a good start. Whatever the case, the Grizzlies appear to have a reliable center combination with a rookie and veteran G League player at the helm.


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(Top photo: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

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