Weak seasonal demand and higher production are weighing on prices

An increase in natural gas production combined with continued weak demand has put downward pressure on prices. Seasonal factors are contributing to weaker demand, with forecasts calling for mild weather across much of the United States next week. According to NatGasWeather, weather systems are expected to keep temperatures cool across the northern United States, but most of the country will experience mild conditions, reducing heating needs. This lack of weather-related demand dampens the likelihood of a significant price rally.

Global supply concerns are easing and contributing to the pessimistic mood

In Europe, natural gas prices fell on Monday as initial supply fears eased following recent conflicts in the Middle East. The supply chains remain largely intact and significant disruptions to natural gas flows were avoided despite heightened geopolitical tensions. This global stability has further reduced positive support for US prices as European LNG demand, a key driver of US exports, shows limited volatility.

Market forecast

Given the current market situation, the pessimistic sentiment is expected to continue in the short term as long as demand remains weak and production levels remain high. A decisive break below the $2.764 support level could send prices lower towards $2.585, while the market’s upside potential is capped by technical resistance levels near $3.10.