A low pressure area produces disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves into an environment that is only marginally favorable for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is possible through this weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a medium chance of development of 40 percent.

Puerto Rico and other nearby Caribbean islands are expected to experience heavy rain and gusty winds this weekend regardless of how this system develops.

Currently, the system is expected to weaken as it approaches Cuba as it becomes enveloped by dry air. A massive low point surrounding a prevailing high pressure system, the same one that is bringing us cool weather this week, is also extending through Florida, simply pushing this system out to sea and staying well away from Florida or the Southeast.

“While the storm is currently producing relatively strong convection, its circulation looks more distorted than it did on Tuesday,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist and meteorologist at Colorado State University. “For most models, development has slowed down significantly in the last few days.”

Below you can see how the models perform in terms of predicted storm intensity. Most models agree that Tropical Storm Nadine could be named by the weekend, making it the 14th named storm of the season. The 14th storm typically does not form until November 19th during a typical Atlantic hurricane season.

Another widespread low pressure system has produced a series of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean. This system has a low 20 percent chance of becoming tropical as it drifts westward and may actually run out of marine properties before it brings heavy rains to Central America.

The same environment – dry air and a deep low – is in place that will likely prevent this storm from strengthening while also staying away from the continental United States.

Two storms have already formed in October: Leslie and Milton both became hurricanes earlier in the month. There has not been an actively named storm in the Atlantic since October 12, the longest stretch since the week-long break between Gordon and Helene in the third week of September.

With fewer than 50 days remaining in the hurricane season, which ends November 30, there is a slight trend toward further storm development in the second half of October. Sea surface temperatures are certainly still warm enough to establish and sustain tropical systems, but the challenge is that weather patterns become increasingly variable later in the fall. This means wind shear and dry air make it difficult for storms to persist.

Take a look at NOAA’s Tropical Hazard Outlook for the next two weeks below.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.