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My first bet: NFL Week 8 early picks
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My first bet: NFL Week 8 early picks

Only one team is still undefeated after seven weeks of NFL action: the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. This week begins with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Inglewood to take on the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night.

Sunday’s slate features a number of interesting matchups, including the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers battling for supremacy in the NFC South and the Chicago Bears visiting the Washington Commanders. On Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers will be looking for a win after suffering defeats in their last games. On Monday evening, the Pittsburgh Steelers, led by the resurgent Russell Wilson, face the New York Giants.

Our team takes an early look at the Week 8 odds to find value before the lines move later in the week:

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET


Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins

Last week: Saints-Broncos UNDER 37.5. Line closed at 37.5. Broncos won 33-10.

The price for this game is as if Tua Tagovailoa starts on Sunday against the Cardinals, and we’re not 100% sure that’s the case. Even if the fifth-year quarterback returns, he’ll be at the helm of an offense that relies on timing and precision… and it’s also an offense he hasn’t been involved with in six weeks. The rust factor is big here. Now let’s look at the alternative: Tua not Return and we get +3.5 against a Tim Boyle-led offense that has averaged just 10 points per game since losing Tagovailoa to a concussion. Given that “3” is the most important number in football betting, I’m now happy to go with +3.5.

Ben Solak’s first bet: Philadelphia Eagles-Cincinnati Bengals over 46.5 points

The Eagles and Bengals have split their last two opponents – both teams played the Browns and Giants – and that has made both teams look much more competent on defense than they probably are. I think the Eagles can compete against Cincinnati, which still lacks the personnel of a strong run defense; I think the Bengals can compete against the Eagles, who have several rookies in their secondary. I’ll take this over here.

Seth Walder’s first bet: Buffalo Bills win AFC East (-700)

You know what? Value is value, even at -700. FPI makes the Bills a 94% favorite to win this division, which is a fair price of -1613. They are by far the best team in the division and are at least 2.5 games ahead of all other teams. The Bills are the fourth-best team in football according to FPI, with their quarterback arguably the league’s MVP so far. Meanwhile, the Patriots are in the running for the worst team in football, the Dolphins are lifeless without Tua Tagovailoa and the Jets can’t get their act together even after acquiring Davante Adams. Buffalo is a powerhouse that is already way ahead, and none of its competitors can beat the team.

Andre Snellings’ first bet: Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

Last week: Commanders (-7.5) vs. Panthers. Line closed at -10.5. The Commanders won 40-7.

I’m officially in “points against the Panthers” mode until something significant changes. The Panthers have been comically bad this season, to a degree that the lines can’t seem to keep up with. Aside from their Week 3 win over the Raiders, the Panthers have lost all six of their other games by one loss Averaged 24.5 PPG! It’s even worse on the road, where their average loss is 32 points and they have no losses of less than 26 points. The Broncos, meanwhile, have won four of their last five games, three of them by at least 16 points. The Broncos arguably have the best defense in the league, allowing the third-fewest yards and third-fewest points per game. The Panthers arguably have the worst offense in the league, scoring the fifth-fewest points per game for the fifth-fewest yards. This should be another big loss for the Panthers.

Anita Marks: Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Last week: Vikings (-2) vs. Lions. Line closed at -1.5. The Lions won 31-29

The Packers come into the game with momentum after a big win against the Houston Texans. Jordan Love is 4-1 ATS in his last five road games and has the power to pick apart the Jaguars’ terrible secondary. Jacksonville returns home after two weeks in London and has to readjust. The Jags are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games, and Trevor Lawrence can’t help but turn the ball over.

Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Navy (+12.5) vs. Notre Dame

Last week: Texas (-3.5) vs. Georgia. Line closed at -4.5. Georgia won 30-15.

Here’s something you don’t expect to learn on a Monday morning: The Midshipmen rank first in EPA (expected points added) per play in the passing attack. Navy is known for its run-heavy triple-option system and, with quarterback Blake Horvath at the helm, has developed a surprisingly effective passing game that has placed them 7th in offensive success rate. They are constantly moving the chains and getting into scoring positions. And let’s not forget: It wasn’t that long ago that the Fighting Irish completely lost to Northern Illinois, allowing 10.4 yards per pass and 190 rushing yards. This may be the most efficient offense Notre Dame has faced this season.

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