As two exciting rounds of the 2024 MLB Playoffs played out on the field, in-game conversations took place in front offices about the players who will become free agents after the end of the postseason.

Some of these upcoming free agents have shined — or struggled — under the bright lights of October so far. How much will their postseason performance impact their offseason payday?

Here’s what my conversations with front office sources tell us about who will help – or hurt – their free agent stock the most during the playoffs.

In a class of its own

Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees

Soto is clearly the No. 1 free agent in this class, but he might also be the least at risk in the postseason. In short, he’ll get paid no matter what his postseason stats look like. I polled 28 industry insiders to predict Soto’s contract in June, then did a tiered free agent breakdown in August, and the consensus across the sport hasn’t changed. Soto is on track to hit somewhere in the $500 million range, maybe even a little more if there’s a bidding war and/or a hot market in general this winter. That will likely be the expectation until December, when a real reading of his suitors might refine that forecast.

Play for a nine-figure amount

Jack Flaherty, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets

These are the top two non-Soto free agents left in the playoffs after Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames and Max Fried were eliminated in the wild card round. But perhaps no upcoming free agent has more to gain in the coming weeks than Alonso.

The surface factors suggest that a shorter-term deal and/or an eight-figure guarantee are the more likely options this offseason. He is a right-handed hitter who plays first base, turns 30 in December, and has no baserunning, fielding or positional value. His WAR has declined in consecutive seasons and he is coming off the worst power season of his career.

But Alonso also has some key factors working in his favor. There’s the marketability of an accomplished power hitter (34 to 53 home runs every full season) playing in a huge market, with a wealthy owner and an enthusiastic fan base, and a growing reputation for delivering in big places this October.

Although the fundamentals suggest he will do worse than his two most similar recent free agency contenders – Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130 million) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million). The prevailing opinion from my industry discussions is that he will finish between these numbers due to the second list of factors and the odds of winning will only increase with a deep playoff run by the Mets.

Flaherty helped his stock with a rebound season that came at the right time after four straight mediocre seasons. His top free agent drafts are both pitchers from the 2021-22 free agent class: Kevin Gausman (five years, $110 million) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115 million). Planning his next contract will require some adjustments from those starting points, as natural market inflation occurs over three years and Flaherty is younger than both and has a slightly better platform season – but a shorter track record leading up to free agency.

This is where October comes into play. If Flaherty can recover from his inconsistent start in NLDS Game 1 against the San Diego Padres, a series of outstanding playoff games (if the Dodgers advance far enough) could help teams ensure he can repeat his 2024 season. But if he doesn’t get that chance or show more of it, teams could shy away from spending much more than $100 million.

You want to maximize a multi-year contract

Ha-Seong Kim, SS, San Diego Padres (injured)
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Manaea, SP, New York Mets
Luis Severino, SP, New York Mets
Jeff Hoffman, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
Carlos Estevez, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
Tanner Scott, RP, San Diego Padres

All of these players are facing big multi-year deals, and someone in this group could reach $100 million, although it probably wouldn’t be much.

Hernandez answered the questions this season that put him in the one-year-plus decision-making process last winter, and I think he’ll easily make $50 million even though his defensive ratings decline in 2024 the postseason.

The Mets signed two pitchers on short-term contracts over the winter as they continue to prepare for bigger gains to come, either by returning to New York or signing elsewhere. Manaea will be coming off the second year of his two-year, $28 million contract due to a well-timed career year. He should be able to get at least a three-year deal and could replace Taijuan Walker’s four-year, $72 million deal from two winters ago. Severino should fall behind Manaea but easily get three years after signing a one-year, $13 million deal this season.

Hoffman, Estevez and Scott are the three best relievers available, and all throw crucial innings in the postseason. In my opinion, Hoffman and Scott Estevez are a bit ahead of the game, but they could all sign four-year deals at an eight-figure AAV.

I’m including Kim, but he’s out for the rest of the postseason with a shoulder injury, so he won’t have a chance to help his stock this October. I had him at the bottom of the nine-figure group in August, but now it’s more likely he’ll finish near the top of that group.

You still have something to prove

Michael Wacha, SP, Kansas City Royals
Clay Holmes, RP, New York Yankees
Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres

Wacha will likely opt out of the $16 million player option he has and get a multi-year deal after a career year with the Royals, but he’s more of a reliable source of experienced innings than a starter at bat. The confusing thing is that his velocity has increased by 1.5 mph this season, so some organizations that excel at pitching development may see even more potential beneath the surface. Wacha could get over $50 million on a three-year deal, but I think a two-year deal with a high AAV is more likely.

Holmes was terrible down the stretch – 12 IP, 9 K, 7 BB, 4.50 ERA in his last 15 appearances – but was the 10th best reliever in the sport up to that point. I expect the Yankees will let him go as he should get a three-year offer from another team, but showing some of his previous form in his October moments will only help any suitor warm up to the idea. that he can bounce back next season.

Profar’s prospects aren’t as difficult to understand as Alonso’s, he’s just a difficult player to understand.

I expect there will be multi-year offers for him based on the conversations I’ve had, but the metrics say he’s a streaky left fielder who only plays with the bat (negative defensive and baserunning metrics ), so it would be difficult to guarantee much for the 31-year-old. year-old despite a 4.3 WAR outburst in a season. He’s also the type of player who could use the momentum of a hot postseason to help a team accept the idea that 2024 was a late-career breakthrough rather than another blip in an inconsistent career.

Short term options

Kyle Higashioka, C, San Diego Padres
Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees
Jose Iglesias, SS, New York Mets
Alex Verdugo, OF, New York Yankees
Harrison Bader, OF, New York Mets
Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Matthew Boyd, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Tommy Kahnle, RP, New York Yankees
Blake Treinen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Spencer Turnbull, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

The cutoff for this tier is around $10 million in projected guaranteed money, with JD Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Alex Cobb, Jesse Winker and Anthony Rizzo narrowly missing that limit.

Torres is intriguing because of his talent status and uneven career, despite some major successes. His 2024 included a pretty big split – 83 wRC+ through July 11, 130 wRC+ by the end of the season, with much better walk and strikeout rates in the second half – but for the season, his offense, defense, and baserunning numbers otherwise below league average. Since he is still 27 years old, I expect him to sign a big one-year deal to potentially hit the market next winter after a recovery season. Torres fits the type of player the Mariners often target, although I don’t have any reports to support that.

A deep dive into Buehler’s production in 2024 shows he’s essentially a finesse-based No. 3 or perhaps No. 4 starter as he approaches free agency after returning from Tommy John surgery. I could imagine a one-year get-right deal or a team with a plan for their arsenal and multi-year usage.