Everyone knows Michigan can’t throw the ball. The Wolverines rely too much on their rushing attack.

Although Michigan State’s secondary is very vulnerable, Jonathan Smith has reformed Sparty’s front seven, which ranks 26th in college football in rushing percentage allowed.

This is a fantastic matchup for Michigan State’s defense

I also think this transfer-heavy offense is slowly improving under the first-year head coach.

Aidan Chiles and Co. dropped 32 points on a 51 percent success rate (89th percentile single-game performance) against Iowa’s all-time elite defense last week.

Teams led by Smith are 16-7 against more than a field goal and average more than six points per game.

His Spartans will keep it close – if they don’t win outright.

Choose: Michigan State +5.5.

OREGON (-21.5) over Illinois

Are we sure the 6-1 Illini are good? They reported a net success rate of minus 0.7 percent.

Illinois is down on the ground (114th nationally in rush success rate allowed), which doesn’t bode well in this matchup with an ever-improving Jordan James – Oregon’s advantage has piled up to more than 430 yards on 5.6 yards per carry in the last four weeks.

Illinois can’t run the ball (70th in EPA per rush), so they’ll be forced to lean on Luke Altmyer’s arm.

The Illinois quarterback faces some turnover decline (nine turnover-worthy throws to just one interception) going up against a ball-guzzling Oregon secondary that ranks third in PFF coverage ratings and 14th in passes defensed.

We know the Ducks are good at No. 1.

A strong point of comparison for this matchup: Oregon defeated a Purdue team that had lost by 49 points to Illinois the previous week.

I smell a bang. It’s time for Bret Bielema’s Ponzi scheme to collapse.

Kansas (+10) over KANSAS STATE

While I hate this bet from a schematic standpoint, the Jayhawks are insanely undervalued.

They are 2-5 with a difference of plus 45 points. Kansas isn’t as bad as its 2-5 record suggests.

Kansas State’s rush attack is dangerous, but I’m continually underwhelmed by Avery Johnson, who, despite his 14-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, made eight great throws on seven turnover-worthy plays.

Betting on college football?

After a brutal start to the season (two big throws and seven turnover-worthy plays in the first three weeks), Jalon Daniels is slowly settling in (eight big throws and four turnover-worthy plays since then).

He was sensational last week against Houston.

The spread is inflated in this rivalry game.

Last week: 2-1. Georgia (W), Kentucky (L), Michigan State (W)
Season: 12-11.

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating Sandy Alcantara at 40/1 to win the NL Cy Young.