There are a few knowns and a lot of unknowns in the shocks that could skew October payroll numbers.

What is known: What is known: Striking aerospace mechanics and hotel workers are expected to reduce the workforce by more than 40,000 jobs in October, according to the latest BLS strike report. In October, 41,400 new workers (the lion’s share at Boeing) went on strike, in addition to an ongoing strike by video game voice actors.

On October 11, Boeing, which has the lion’s share of striking workers, announced plans to cut its workforce by 10%, or 17,000 jobs. Based solely on the timing of this announcement, none of these cuts will impact October employment numbers.

What is unknown: Companies do not operate in a vacuum. So if operations decline or come to a standstill without their employees, it will impact other companies as well.

The Boeing strike, for example, may have resulted in 5,000 to 7,000 layoffs at non-Boeing companies in Washington and Oregon, but the full extent is difficult to estimate, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN.

The biggest unknown will be the impact of hurricanes. The last time there were two major hurricanes in a row – Harvey and Irma in 2017 – the jobs report forecast for the following month was for a loss of 33,000 jobs.

This September 2017 figure was later revised upwards as more information became available. In addition to the direct and devastating impacts that keep people from work, weather events also impact the BLS’s ability to collect data from businesses and households.

“In a hurricane, the top priority is not sending your numbers to BLS,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said in an interview with CNN. “Estimates tend to become less accurate during a natural disaster.”