CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AXIOS) – Blue-dominated Charlotte County may be on track to let the Democratic Party down again by not turning out enough voters.

Why it matters: Mecklenburg County is one of the most important counties in the US presidential election.

• Local party leaders say Mecklenburg has the Democratic population to push Vice President Harris to a victory in North Carolina – as does Fulton County, Georgia.
• However, if turnout here continues to lag, it will be much easier for former President Trump to win North Carolina again. In such a close election, that could mean winning the presidency.

Based on the numbers: Despite population growth in the region, voter turnout has so far been well below the 2020 numbers.

• At that time, around 1.4 million Democrats nationwide had voted in the 2020 presidential election. More than 185,000 of those people came from Mecklenburg, state election board data shows.
• Fewer than 145,000 Democrats voted in Mecklenburg this year.
• Republican turnout nationally is now over 1.14 million, up from 2020. At about this point in 2020, it was 1.13 million.

Yes but: Andrew Richards, deputy director of MeckDems, says the pandemic year has been so unusual that it is hardly worth comparing.

• Only 16% of North Carolina voters cast a ballot on Election Day this year.
• In other recent elections, around 30-45% of voting took place on election day.

Between the lines: In-person Democratic turnout in Mecklenburg has increased 2.5% since 2020, but Democrats make up a smaller share of all voters who cast ballots earlier this year than in 2020.

• During the first 13 days of early voting in 2020, Democrats accounted for 46% of all in-person early voters. This year, that number is 43%.

Driving News: Still, the paltry numbers seem even more surprising given the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party’s recent efforts. In recent years it has transformed from a volunteer group to an organization with over 20 employees.

• It is on track to knock on over 300,000 doors this election cycle. Fundraising totaled over $2 million, compared to $152,000 in 2020.

Flashback: Voter turnout in Mecklenburg County has historically been low. Charlotte has been blamed for Democratic losses in high-profile contests, such as Cheri Beasley’s bid for U.S. Senate in 2022 and her bid for chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court in 2021, which she lost by about 400 votes .

• In the primary elections in March, voter turnout in Mecklenburg County was less than 19%. Nationally it was 24%.
• Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by just over 74,000 votes. Voter turnout in Mecklenburg this year was also lower than in the rest of the state, by almost four percentage points.
• Mecklenburg is “a necessary but not sufficient condition for Democrats to win in North Carolina,” Richards says.

What they say: During a campaign event on Monday, Gov. Roy Cooper told Axios that he still had the “feeling of 2008” when asked if Democratic turnout was concerning, referring to the last time North Carolina had one Democrats elected president.

• In 2008, 55.5% of voters cast their votes early. On the eve of Election Day, nearly 560,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans had voted.
• Cooper attributes Republicans’ national lead in early voter turnout this year to former President Trump encouraging his supporters to vote early.
• “We still have a whole week to go and I can feel the excitement,” Cooper said.

The other side: The The Democratic turnout challenges the narrative that Harris has revived enthusiasm within the party.

• “If there was such a groundswell of enthusiasm, it would have surfaced in the early days of early voting, as it did among Republicans,” Matt Mercer of the North Carolina GOP tells Axios.
• Mercer says his party isn’t taking its early leadership for granted. Leading up to Election Day, the GOP continues to target urban areas like Charlotte, where there are high numbers of eligible voters and many undecided voters.

Another clear warning for the Harris campaign: Black voter turnout in North Carolina is down, Axios Raleigh reports.

• Those ballots could influence battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina, where the proportion of black voters is higher than the rest of the country — but not if they don’t vote.

The Story from Axios Charlotte was published as part of a partnership.

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