Current status: PHI 90-59, NYM 81-68 (9GB), ATL 81-68 (9GB), WAS 68-81 (22GB), MIA 55-95 (35.5GB)

Expected Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

Expected wildcard teams: New York Yankees

The Phillies have led this division by a 5-10 game margin for nearly four months, and it’s a foregone conclusion that they’ll make it and get a first-round bye. Could be No. 1. Could be No. 2. But there’s no real drama there.

However, the race for second place in this division could soon be the only race that really counts.

At the All-Star break, Atlanta was comfortably in the projected postseason field. The Phillies were 8.5 games ahead in the division, but Atlanta was two games behind the No. 2 seed Dodgers and five games ahead of the first team on the wrong side of the No. 6 cutline.

Since then, they haven’t played badly once, compiling a winning record of 28-26, which is better than what Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cleveland and Minnesota have accomplished in the last two months.

Unfortunately, San Diego went 35-16, Arizona 34-18 and New York 32-22, putting the Braves overall on the brink of missing the cut.

And with Reynaldo López back on the injured list (shoulder) after leaving Tuesday’s game against Washington, it’s becoming less and less likely by the day that the team will fight back and take back what once seemed certain.

But could the schedule save Atlanta?

Not only do they have a huge opportunity at home against the Mets (September 24-26), but they also have two consecutive series against Cincinnati and Miami to play before that showdown, while New York must complete that series in Atlanta with four games against Philadelphia and three in Milwaukee.

What’s really fascinating about this final weekend is that while the Brewers can already secure third place, they also have the power to choose who they face in this wildcard series.

Atlanta, meanwhile, hosts Kansas City, which is likely already locked in as the AL’s No. 5 seed at this point. If that’s the case, they might rest Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha for their 4/5 matchup, which might be just what the Braves need to cross the finish line.

We’re currently tipping the Mets, but it could remain exciting in the final stretch.

(Not surprisingly, the season series between Atlanta and New York is currently tied 5-5, meaning the winner of those remaining three games would have the edge in a potential tiebreaker. The fact that the Mets were swept in Atlanta at exactly the same point in the schedule in 2022 is why they lost the NL East tiebreaker two years ago.)